Impacts and Risk Assessment to better inform Resilience Planning (IMPRES)

英国气象局、食品、环境和农村事务部以及工商、企业和工业部以及环境局发布了一份文件，说明从UKCP18获得的衍生产品的感知用户需求。许多决策者将需要关于气候变化影响的信息，这些信息在新的预测中描述了他们感兴趣的特定地区或部门，例如未来的洪水或热应力风险。其他衍生产品包括水分胁迫、干旱和植被生长。为了满足这些需求，上述机构提出了几种方法，包括：1)使用UKCP18信息更新现有产品。他们特别建议调查以前的研究是否仍然有效(在我们的情况下，使用CMIP5，而不是专门使用UKCP09)；以及2)确定是否需要进行“具体评估”，以“将对UKCP18的考虑纳入现有或计划的研究中……对于那些确定了风险但产品需求定义不明确的主题，需要做哪些工作。”此外，政府必须在2022年1月之前提交第三次英国气候变化风险评估(CCRA3)。为了向这份报告提供信息，环境、食品和农村事务部已要求气候变化委员会(CCC)的适应委员会在2021年夏天之前准备一份独立的证据报告。这份报告将要求对最近关于气候变化对英国自然环境、基础设施、商业、人员和国际层面的风险的相关研究进行文献综述。IMPRES旨在考虑这些目前已确定的需求。IMPRES旨在使用现有的CMIP5驱动的模型输出来快速确定气候变化对各种影响的风险，以确定这些影响发生在英国的哪里以及发生在什么温度。IMPRES通过快速提供对人和牲畜的热应激、洪水风险、水安全和农业、生物多样性和自然资本以及英国经济等风险的新估计，直接告知用户需求。然后，IMPRES更进一步，使用上述两种方法--现有数据考虑，并确定必要时使用UKCP18数据的必要工作范围。我们可以访问两套气候变化预测，一个是廷德尔中心从全球环流模型(GCM)得出的现有数据集，另一个是最近在英国地区发布的更详细的数据集，称为UKCP18，具有更详细的空间和时间细节。英国以前对气候变化相关风险的评估倾向于使用不同的社会经济和气候情景，我们的项目将开创性地使用一套协调的情景，以空间明确的方式预测英国人类和自然系统未来的风险水平。我们首先使用现有的气候数据集来预测风险，然后继续使用UKCP18数据进行准备。由于全面处理和利用UKCP18将是一项超出本项目范围的大量工作，因此我们进行了一项范围研究，以制定完成这项工作的工作计划，然后继续实施这项工作计划的一小部分，以提供对热应激(对人和牲畜)和干旱的风险的初步评估。在整个过程中，我们通过向利益攸关方传播我们的调查结果，并通过举办研讨会或双边会议来确定他们的需求，以便我们能够将这些因素纳入我们的工作计划，从而与他们接触。特别是，这些需求可能与我们用来描述风险水平的指标有关，或者与我们将探索的社会经济情景有关。我们项目的第一部分使用现有的已公布的风险评估方法，并很好地补充了我们正在进行的一些现有工作，即评估其他一些(非英国)国家的风险。

The Met Office, Departments of Food, Environment and Rural Affairs and Business, Enterprise and Industry, and the Environment Agency have issued a document on the perceived user needs for derived products from UKCP18. "Many decision makers will need information about the impacts of the climate changes that are described in the new projections for their specific areas or sectors of interest, for example, future flood or heat stress risk." Other derived products include water stress, drought and vegetation growth. To meet these needs the above agencies suggested several approaches including: 1) Updating an existing product with UKCP18 information. They specifically suggest investigating whether previous research is still valid (in our case with CMIP5 rather than specifically with UKCP09); and 2) Determine whether "specific assessments will need to be undertaken" to "incorporate consideration of UKCP18 into existing or planned research...scope what work is needed for those topics where a risk is identified but the product need is poorly defined." Furthermore, the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) must be produced by Government by January 2022. To inform the report, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has asked the Climate Change Committee's (CCC's) Adaptation Committee to prepare an independent evidence report by summer 2021. This report will require a literature review of recent relevant research on climate change risks to the UK's natural environment, infrastructure, business, people, and international dimensions of the issue. IMPRES is designed to consider these currently identified needs. IMPRES is designed to use existing CMIP5 driven model output to rapidly scope the risks of climate change on a wide-variety of impacts to identify where in the UK, and at what temperatures these occur. IMPRES speaks directly to inform user needs by rapidly providing new estimates of risks, including heat stress to people and livestock, flood risk, water security and agriculture, biodiversity and natural capital, and the UK economy. IMPRES then goes further by using both of the approaches above - existing data consideration, and scope the work necessary to use the UKCP18 data when needed. We have access to two sets of climate change projections, an existing dataset derived by the Tyndall Centre from global circulation models (GCMs) and a more detailed dataset recently released with greater spatial and temporal detail in the UK region, known as UKCP18. Previous assessments of climate-change related risk in the UK have tended to use disparate socioeconomic and climate scenarios, and our project will be ground-breaking in using a harmonised set of scenarios to project future levels of risk across human and natural systems in the UK in a spatially explicit fashion. We begin by using the existing climate dataset to project the risks, and then go on to prepare to do so with the UKCP18 data. Since processing and utilising the UKCP18 in full would be a large amount of work beyond the scope of this project, we instead perform a scoping study to lay out a work plan for doing this, and then go on to implement a very small part of this work plan to provide an initial assessment of risks from heat stress (to people and livestock) and drought. Throughout, we engage with stakeholders by disseminating our findings to them, and by holding workshops or bilateral meetings to identify their needs, so that we can factor these in to our work plan. In particular, these needs might relate to the metrics we use to describe levels of risk, or to the socioeconomic scenarios that we will explore. The first part of our project uses existing published risk assessment methodologies and complements well some existing work that we are performing which is to assess risks in some other (non-UK) countries.