UKESM 1 Yr Extension (NCEO)

全球气候变化是人类面临的主要环境威胁之一。要制定适当的缓解和适应战略，需要准确预测地球气候的未来状况。为了解决这一问题，我们开发了全球气候模型(GCM)，描述了耦合气候系统中的主要物理过程。这些模型是在模拟时间内向前整合的，从前工业化时期到现在，受到对关键温室气体、气溶胶和土地利用的观测估计的影响。然后，由于一系列温室气体、气溶胶和土地利用情景的强迫，这些模型将被延续到未来。然后，每个未来气候模型都可以与模拟的现在气候进行比较。这一分析产生了一套气候变化估计，可用于评估模拟变化的社会经济和生态影响，并有助于制定缓解和适应政策。GCM已经进一步发展成地球系统模型(ESM)，就像我们在UKESM LTSM中所做的那样，其中UKESM1是从物理模型HadGEM3-GC3.1发展而来的。可持续发展模式和全球碳模式的一个关键区别是前者包括对全球碳循环的交互描述，支持对自然气候变化和自然碳库吸收人为排放的二氧化碳的功效的潜在变化的分析。地球天然碳库吸收效率的降低可能会导致排放的二氧化碳中有更大比例留在大气中，以使地球变暖。因此，对全球气候系统和碳循环未来演变的准确估计，对于清楚了解人类面临的未来风险，以及制定缓解行动(通常以修改碳吸收效率为目标)以将全球变暖保持在可接受的水平至关重要。为了满足这一需求，我们开发了第一个英国地球系统模型(UKESM1)，并在第六次耦合模式比对项目(CMIP6)中进行了一系列大型实验。UKESM1是当今世界上最先进的地球系统模式，也是一个耦合的物理气候模式，它还包括(1)全球碳循环和植被、(2)大气化学和气溶胶以及(3)格陵兰和南极冰盖模式的互动处理。我们使用UKESM1(1850年至2015年)运行了大量(19个成员)历史模拟，并将其中一些模拟扩展到未来(2015年至2100年)，遵循CMIP6场景MIP的7种不同未来排放路径。在这个扩展中，我们提出了对UKESM1历史合奏和ScenarioMIP预测套件的详细分析。我们的目标是(I)更好地了解是什么驱动了观测到的历史地球系统变化，并询问UKESM1如何很好地代表这些变化，(Ii)利用(I)分析UKESM1情景下的模拟地球系统变化的知识，将其与CMIP6多模式集合相结合，以记录下一个世纪耦合地球系统的模拟变化范围。这项分析的两个主要重点将是：(A)记录和对比在全球平均变暖的不同水平(例如2摄氏度或3摄氏度)的区域变化和(B)在可能的情况下，限制由UKESM1模拟的驱动我们所看到的变化的各种耦合反馈。除了这两个科学目标外，我们还将继续为英国UKESM的大型用户和模型开发社区提供支持，并计划与(I)英国气候政策制定者和(Ii)英国气候影响研究人员举行两次咨询研讨会。在这些研讨会中，我们将介绍我们对预测未来地球系统变化的研究结果，并就英国地球系统建模如何最好地满足这两个群体的需求展开双向对话，在相互了解每个群体的需求和目标的基础上发展未来的合作。

Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, we develop Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases, aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios. Each of the model future climates can then compared to the simulated present-day climates. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates that can be used to assess the socio-economic and ecological impacts of the simulated changes and aid in the development of mitigation and adaptation policies. GCMs have been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs), as we did in the UKESM LTSM, where UKESM1 was developed from the physical model, HadGEM3-GC3.1. A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle supporting analysis of both physical climate change and potential changes in the efficacy by which anthropogenic emitted CO2 is taken up by natural carbon reservoirs. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs may result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere to warm the planet. Accurate estimates of the future evolution of both the global climate system and the carbon cycle are therefore crucial for getting a clear picture of the future risks humanity faces, as well as for developing mitigation actions (that typically target modifying the efficacy of carbon uptake) to keep global warming to acceptable levels. To address this need we developed the 1st UK Earth system model (UKESM1) and ran it for a large suite of experiments in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). UKESM1 is the most advanced Earth system model in the world today and as well as a coupled physical climate model also includes interactive treatment of (i) the global carbon cycle and vegetation, (ii) atmospheric chemistry and aerosols and (iii) models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We have run a large (19 member) ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 (1850 to 2015) and extended a number of these into the future (2015 to 2100) following 7 different future emission pathways from CMIP6 scenarioMIP. In this extension we propose a detailed analysis of the UKESM1 historical ensemble and the suite of scenarioMIP projections. Our aims are (i) to better understand what drives observed historical Earth system change and ask how well UKESM1 represents these changes, (ii) with the knowledge from (i), analyse simulated Earth system change in the UKESM1 scenarioMIP ensemble, combining this with the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to document the range of simulated changes across the coupled Earth system over the coming century. Two primary emphases in this analysis will be; (a) to document and contrast regional changes at different levels of global mean warming (e.g. 2C or 3C) and (b) where possible, to constrain the various coupled feedbacks simulated by UKESM1 that drive the changes we see. In addition to these two science goals, we will also continue to provide support to the large UK UKESM user and model development community and plan to hold two consultation workshops with (i) UK climate policymakers and (ii) UK climate impacts researchers. In these workshops we will present our findings on predicted future Earth system change and begin a two-way dialogue on how UK Earth system modelling can best serve the needs of these two groups, developing future collaborations based on mutual understanding of each groups needs and goals.