Preparing for War: Pre-emptive Behaviour in a Landscape of Intergroup Conflict

敌对群体之间的暴力冲突贯穿人类历史，但这并不是人类独有的现象：从蚂蚁到灵长类动物，所有动物类群都存在群体冲突，这是一种强大的进化力量。我们现在对比赛中发生的事情（例如，谁参加比赛，什么决定谁赢）有了很大的了解，并且越来越多地了解了赛后行为和生存的后果。然而，我们在理解上的一个根本差距是，非人类动物如何采取战略行动，为潜在的未来竞争做准备。在这个项目中，我们将确定可以优化群体间遭遇的先发制人行为（平衡潜在的领土损失风险与与不同实力的竞争对手接触所产生的风险），并最大限度地提高赢得任何竞争的可能性。为此，我们将把尖端的空间测绘和运动模型与长期行为数据和野外实验结合起来，对一个易处理的野生矮猫鼬种群进行研究。矮猫鼬，非洲最小的食肉动物，是理想的研究对象，有几个原因。一个群体由5-30个个体组成，它们睡在一个洞穴里，在一个共同的领土上一起觅食和旅行，共同防御对手。领土行为包括在边界附近的公共厕所做气味标记，以及在遇到对手时进行身体防御。我们已经研究这些有魅力的迷你动物10年了（侏儒猫鼬研究项目），所以有大量的数据集（来自73个群体年）关于群体运动（来自GPS跟踪）和各种行为，包括厕所标记，睡眠洞穴选择，群体内隶属关系和哨兵活动。此外，我们已经让研究人群习惯了我们的近距离存在，使得在自然条件下收集体重数据和实验操作成为可能。我们将利用现有和新的数据来实现三个目标。首先，我们将使用新颖的空间模型与长期运动和行为数据相结合，以确定在群体间冲突的情况下，领土空间的使用和防御行动是如何变化的。我们将评估相对群体规模的重要性，以及历史上和现在的竞争对手群体活动，以预测猫鼬如何利用它们的环境并最大限度地减少群体间的风险。其次，我们将使用详细的长期观察和空间威胁水平的现场操作来确定当有迫在眉睫的群体间竞争的前景时，行为如何在战略上发生变化。我们将确定不同的个体是如何增强信息收集、群体凝聚力和在以后的比赛中团队伙伴参与的可能性，并评估体重增加的后果。第三，我们将操纵选定群体成员之间的攻击和隶属关系，以实验方式测试群体内先发制人的行为如何影响群体间互动的后续贡献。因此，我们将生成第一个详细的实验数据集，调查非人类动物在群体间环境中使用战略先发制人行为的情况。因此，我们的工作将与生物学家研究群体生活、冲突、领土、合作、社会进化和未来规划有关。此外，我们使用新的分析模型来量化在异质景观中竞争群体的相遇概率，这将有利于空间和运动生态学家。由于冲突的管理和后果具有跨学科的含义，我们的研究将补充人类学家、心理学家、社会和政治学家的研究。最后，因为冲突在我们的生活中是很常见的，从家庭成员之间的争端到国家之间的战争，我们将利用一个推广和公众参与活动的项目来激发和告知更广泛的受众我们对社会进化的研究和蓝天研究的重要性。

Violent confrontations between rival groups have arisen throughout human history but this is not a uniquely human phenomenon: conflict between groups occurs in all animal taxa, from ants to primates, and is a powerful evolutionary force. We now know a great deal about what happens during contests (e.g., who participates and what determines who wins) and, increasingly, about the consequences for behaviour and survival in the aftermath. However, a fundamental gap in our understanding is how non-human animals might act strategically in preparation for potential future contests. In this project, we will identify pre-emptive behaviours that could optimise intergroup encounters (balancing the risks of potential territory loss against those arising from engaging with rivals of different strengths) and maximise the likelihood of winning any contests that do arise. To do so, we will combine cutting-edge spatial mapping and movement modelling with long-term behavioural data and field experiments on a tractable wild population of dwarf mongooses.Dwarf mongooses, Africa's smallest carnivore, are ideal for this study for several reasons. Groups comprise 5-30 individuals who sleep in a burrow, forage and travel together within a shared territory that they collectively defend against rivals. Territorial behaviour involves scent-marking at communal latrines near borders and physical defence when rivals are encountered. We have studied these charismatic mini-beasts for 10 years (Dwarf Mongoose Research Project), so have large datasets (from 73 group-years) on group movements (from GPS tracking) and a variety of behaviours, including latrine-marking, sleeping-burrow choice, within-group affiliation and sentinel activity. Moreover, we have habituated the study population to our close presence, enabling collection of body-mass data and experimental manipulations in natural conditions.We will use existing and new data to tackle three objectives. First, we will use novel spatial modelling coupled with long-term movement and behaviour data to determine how territorial space use and defensive actions vary in a landscape of intergroup conflict. We will assess the importance of relative group size as well as historic and current rival-group activity in predicting how the mongooses exploit their environment and minimise intergroup risk. Second, we will use detailed long-term observations and a field manipulation of spatial threat level to determine how behaviour changes strategically when there is the prospect of an imminent intergroup contest. We will identify how different individuals enhance information gathering, group cohesion and the likelihood of groupmate participation in later contests, and assess the consequences for body-mass gains. Third, we will manipulate aggression and affiliation between selected groupmates to test experimentally how pre-emptive within-group behaviour affects subsequent contributions to intergroup interactions.We will therefore generate the first detailed and experimental datasets investigating the use of strategic pre-emptive behaviour by non-human animals in an intergroup context. As such, our work will be of relevance to biologists studying group living, conflict, territoriality, cooperation, social evolution and future planning. Moreover, our use of novel analytical models that quantify the encounter probability of rival groups in a heterogeneous landscape will be of benefit to spatial and movement ecologists. Since the management and consequences of conflict have interdisciplinary implications, our research will complement that by anthropologists, psychologists, and social and political scientists. Finally, because conflict is common in our own lives, from disputes among family members to wars between nations, we will use a programme of outreach and public engagement activities to enthuse and inform a wider audience about our research on social evolution and the importance of blue-skies research.