Planning for avian influenza outbreaks and potential pandemic

描述（由申请人提供）：全球传染病培训计划的这一申请旨在加强流行病学研究能力，以规划和应对泰国新出现的流感疫情。2004年发现人类禽流感病例，引发泰国和国际社会对新的流感大流行即将开始的担忧。过去一年来对这一新出现的疾病所取得的深入了解说明了泰国流行病学家的研究能力。然而，禽流感的经验表明，泰国需要增加受过传染病流行病学培训的科学家人数。此外，为应对这一新挑战，流行病学家所需的培训范围超过了现有的培训计划。预防新出现的流感病毒株的流行需要国家和国际作出反应。流行病学家必须实时为规划和应对提供科学投入。拟议的培训将侧重于在暴发初期向决策者提供最多信息的方法。在过去几年中，泰国公共卫生部和约翰霍普金斯布隆伯格公共卫生学院的教员在各种传染病研究项目上建立了密切联系。目前，这项提案的研究人员正在从事NIH（NIGMS）资助的研究，以开发一种新的流感变种在泰国人群中传播的计算机模拟。计算模拟提供了一个宝贵的工具，进行“流行病学在硅”，以评估控制措施，如使用疫苗，抗病毒药，检疫前的实际事件。功能模拟还可以提供关于流行病进程的实时信息，并评估控制措施不断变化的要求。拟议的培训将培养泰国流行病学家的能力，使他们能够结合传统的流行病学方法，利用新的理论和计算工具。拟议的受训人员人数包括约翰霍普金斯的两名公共卫生硕士（各为期一年）受训人员，公共卫生部通过现场流行病学培训方案的25名长期国内受训人员，以及通过远程教育和短期国内讲习班的至少50名短期受训人员。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application to the Global Infectious Disease Training Program seeks to strengthen the epidemiologic research capacity for planning and response to emerging influenza outbreaks in Thailand. The detection of human cases of avian influenza in 2004 initiated concern both in Thailand and internationally that a new pandemic of influenza was about to begin. The depth of knowledge that has been gained over the last year about this emerging disease is illustrative of the strength of the research capabilities of Thai epidemiologists. However, the avian influenza experience has demonstrated the need to expand the number of scientists in Thailand with training in infectious disease epidemiology. Additionally, the scope of training required of epidemiologists to meet this new challenge exceeds existing training programs. Prevention of epidemics of newly emergent strains of influenza require national and international response. Epidemiologists must provide scientific input to planning and response in real-time. The proposed training would focus on methodologies that provide the most information to decision-makers during an incipient outbreak. Over the past several years, the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) of Thailand and faculty at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have formed strong links on a variety of research projects on infectious diseases. Currently, investigators on this proposal are engaged in NIH (NIGMS) funded research to develop computational simulations of the spread of a novel variant of influenza in the Thai population should one emerge. Computational simulation provides an invaluable tool for conducting "epidemiology in silicon" to evaluate control measures such as the use of vaccines, antivirals, quarantine before an actual event. Functioning simulations could also provide real-time information on the course of epidemics and in evaluating changing requirements for control measures. The proposed training will develop the capacity for Thai epidemiologists to utilize new theoretical and computational tools in concert with traditional epidemiological approaches. The number of trainees proposed includes two MPH (each one year long) trainees at Johns Hopkins, 25 long-term in country trainees at the MOPH through the Field Epidemiology Training Program, and at least 50 short-term trainees through distance education and short-term in-country workshops.