An Econometric Analysis of Cigarette Price Search and Tax Incidence

描述（由申请人提供）：卷烟税是烟草控制政策的一个既定部分。为了进一步提高我们对卷烟税后果的理解，拟议研究的广泛目标是对卷烟价格搜索进行探索性经济分析。拟议的项目将使用消费者人口调查2003年特别戒烟补充资料中的国家数据。2003年TUSCS包含有关价格搜索行为的新颖数据，包括：香烟的价格;吸烟者是否通常购买盒装或盒装香烟;他们最后一次购买香烟是否是在居住州以外的其他州;以及他们最后一次购买香烟是否是通过互联网或其他方式。为了更深入地探讨跨境问题，我们还建议分析来自纽约州成人烟草调查的数据。与TUCS类似，NYS-ATS包含过境措施和卷烟价格。纽约是一个很好的“实验室”来研究边境穿越，因为它包括当地香烟税很高的纽约市，以及多个美洲原住民保留区，这些保留区是许多纽约人低价香烟的重要来源。具体目标1是估计过境对卷烟价格影响的计量经济学模型。我们将使用到边境的距离作为关键的工具变量，以确定一个内生的治疗效果模型和一个内生的转换回归模型的跨境价格的影响。过境是一种重要的价格搜索形式，可能对卷烟价格产生重大影响。估计其因果影响的程度本身就很重要，并将揭示更广泛的问题，即消费者搜索行为在消费者对烟草控制政策的反应中所起的作用。具体目标2是使用计量经济学的结果进行一个新的分析，如何在不同的吸烟者群体之间分配香烟税的负担。该分析将扩展跨收入群体税收归宿的标准分析，以探讨价格搜索如何改变税收归宿。公共卫生相关性：香烟税通常被视为防止吸烟的一种方式，吸烟是美国可预防的主要死因。拟议中的项目将探讨消费者在面临高税收的情况下为寻找低价香烟而采取的行动。通过提高我们对这种行为的理解，该项目将有助于制定更有效的烟草控制政策。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Cigarette taxation is a well-established part of tobacco control policy. To further improve our understanding of the consequences of cigarette taxes, the broad objective of the proposed research is to conduct an exploratory economic analysis of cigarette price search. The proposed project will use national data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Special Cessation Supplement to the Consumer Population Survey. The 2003 TUSCS contains novel data on price search behavior including: the price paid for cigarettes; whether smokers usually buy packs or cartons of cigarettes; whether their last cigarette purchase was in some other state than their state of residence; and whether their last cigarette purchase was over the internet or some other means. To explore border crossing in more depth, we also propose to analyze data from the New York State Adult Tobacco Survey. Similar to the TUSCS, the NYS-ATS contains measures of border crossing and the prices paid for cigarettes. New York is a good "laboratory" to study border crossing because it includes New York City, which has a high local cigarette tax, and a number of Native American Reservations, which are important sources of low price cigarettes for many New Yorkers. Specific Aim 1 is to estimate econometric models of the impact of border crossing on the price paid for cigarettes. We will use distance to the border as the key instrumental variable to identify an endogenous treatment effect model and an endogenous switching regressions model of the impact of border crossing on prices. Border crossing is an important form of price search that might have a major impact on the price paid for cigarettes. Estimating the magnitude of its causal impact is important in its own right and will shed light on broader questions about the role consumer search behavior plays in consumer responses to tobacco control policies. Specific Aim 2 is to use the econometric results to conduct a novel analysis of how the burden of cigarette taxes is distributed across different groups of smokers. The analysis will extend the standard analysis of tax incidence across income groups to explore how price search changes tax incidence. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Cigarette taxes are often seen as way to prevent smoking, the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S. The proposed project will explore actions consumers take to find lower price cigarettes even in the face of high taxes. By improving our understanding of this behavior, the project will contribute to more effective tobacco control policies.