Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats

描述（由申请人提供）：该匹兹堡MIDAS卓越中心（U54）的提案建立在我们在NIGMS传染病病原体建模研究“MIDAS”项目中已证实的生产力记录之上。在之前的合作中，我们成功地推进了流行病建模的理论和实践。我们开发了大规模基于主体的禽流感大流行威胁性模拟，利用我们的模型评估潜在的流行病控制策略，并就公共卫生政策向美国政府和世界卫生组织的最高层提出建议。来自MIDAS团队的高级调查员——Burke、Ferguson和Epstein——构成了这个提议的卓越中心的核心。卓越中心的研究分为七个项目团队，每个团队专注于计算建模中的一个特定组件问题；所有七个项目互为补充，互不重复。其中四个项目（参数、行为、进化和环境）试图对传染病流行的动态过程和子过程进行建模，而另外三个项目（决策、准备、应用建模）试图提高模型在公共卫生政策决策中的效用。这个卓越中心的一个独特之处在于其跨学科的特点；行为科学家、心理学家、律师和公共卫生从业人员积极参与，并与县（阿勒格尼）、州（宾夕法尼亚州）和国家（疾病预防控制中心）各级的公共卫生机构进行了强有力的合作。三个核心（行政、教育、培训和外联、计算）为整个中心提供支持。主要人员来自匹兹堡大学、卡耐基梅隆大学、匹兹堡超级计算中心、约翰霍普金斯大学、布鲁金斯学会和帝国理工学院等优秀研究机构。我们有能力在更新的MIDAS网络中提供持续的领导，我们不仅在我们自己的卓越中心内，而且在整个MIDAS网络结构中坚定地致力于合作研究。公共卫生相关性：匹兹堡MIDAS卓越中心的使命是保护美利坚合众国和全球社会免受传染病威胁。为此，我们将提高我国预测潜在流行病的能力，制定防止致病微生物出现或再次出现的战略，并在必要时迅速作出反应，减轻流行病蔓延的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal for a Pittsburgh MIDAS Center of Excellence (U54) builds upon our proven track record of productivity in the NIGMS Modeling of Infectious Disease Agent Study "MIDAS" program. In that prior collaborative effort we successfully advanced both the theory and practice of epidemic modeling. We developed large scale agent-based simulations of a threatening avian influenza pandemic, used our models to evaluate potential epidemic control strategies, and advised the highest levels of the US Government and the WHO on public health policy. The senior investigators from our MIDAS team - Burke, Ferguson, and Epstein - constitute the nucleus of this proposed Center of Excellence. Research within the Center of Excellence is divided into seven project teams, each focusing on a specific component problem in computational modeling; all seven projects are complementary without duplication. Four of the projects (Parameters, Behavior, Evolution, and Environment) seek to model the dynamical processes and subprocesses of infectious disease epidemics, while three others (Decisions, Preparedness, Applied Modeling) seek to improve the utility of models in public health policy decision-making. A unique feature of this Center of Excellence is its exceptionally interdisciplinary character; there is vigorous participation of behavioral scientists, psychologists, lawyers, and public health practitioners, and there are strong collaborations with public health agencies at the county (Allegheny), state (Pennsylvania) and national (CDC) levels. Three cores (Administrative; Education, Training, & Outreach; Computing) provide support across the Center. Key personnel are drawn from the University of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon University, the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, Johns Hopkins University, the Brookings Institution, and Imperial College, all outstanding research institutions. We are well positioned to provide continued leadership in the renewed MIDAS network, and we are deeply committed to collaborative research not only within our own Center of Excellence but across the entire MIDAS network structure. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The mission of the Pittsburgh MIDAS Center of Excellence is to protect the United States of America and the global community against communicable infectious disease threats. We will do this by improving our nation's ability to predict potential epidemics, to devise strategies to prevent the emergence or re-emergence of pathogenic microbes, and to respond rapidly - when necessary - to mitigate the impact of a spreading epidemic.