Does Graduated Driver Licensing Produce Safer Teenage Drivers

描述(由申请人提供)： 项目摘要/摘要。为了回应RFA的三个研究目标，我们建议评估分级驾驶执照(GDL)立法最近和即将发生的变化，这些变化可能会影响因交通事故造成的儿童意外伤害的比率(#6)。我们将评估GDL在15-17岁青少年每英里驾驶交通事故发生率和每人每年非驾驶员伤害方面的影响，这与GDL在预防儿童交通伤害方面的有效性直接相关(#4)，以及关于减少儿童伤害的最有效方法的政策辩论(#7)。重要性：我们在国家一级对GDL的全面评估将提供强有力的科学证据，以评估GDL是否确实产生了更安全的司机，以及GDL如何影响交通选择。这些信息很重要，这样就可以决定GDL是否应该继续目前的形式，或者为了更安全的驾驶而不是限制驾驶而进行实质性的修改。目标：我们将考察GDL对15-17岁青少年的驾驶行为、替代交通工具、每英里驾驶撞车率和每人每年非驾驶伤害以及18岁青少年每英里驾驶撞车率的影响。具体目标：1)确定由于GDL的实施，15-17岁青少年的驾驶行为和每英里撞车率的变化。假设：GDL的实施减少了司机的总行程、驾驶里程、每人每年的驾驶员死亡率、每人年的驾驶员伤害率和每人年的驾驶员撞车事故发生率。然而，GDL不会降低司机的死亡率、伤害率和每一次行程和每英里的撞车率。2)确定GDL如何影响15-17岁青少年对替代交通工具(公共交通、步行、骑自行车、由他人驾驶)的使用，以及GDL如何影响15-17岁机动车乘客、行人和骑自行车的青少年的伤亡。假设：在15-17岁的青少年中，GDL的实施增加了步行、骑自行车和骑车作为乘客的比例，并增加了他们作为非驾驶员的人均车祸死亡率、车祸伤害率和车祸发生率。3)评估实施GDL后18岁青少年的驾驶行为和每英里撞车率的变化。假设：在GDL实施后，18岁青少年的每英里交通撞车率实际上增加了。研究设计：自然实验。1995年、2001年和2008年的全国家庭旅行调查提供了对驾驶和交通行为的估计。1995-1996年、2001-2002年和2008-2009年死亡分析报告系统和警察事故报告确定了伤亡事故。单位：全国(美国)。参与者：15-18岁。干预措施：GDL被分为二元、有序(良好、一般、边缘、差)和特定组成部分(学习许可的进入年龄、学习许可的长度、监督驾驶的小时数、夜间驾驶限制、乘客限制、限制持续时间、中间阶段的最低年龄、正式执照的最低年龄)。结果指标：每天行驶的里程数和行程数，以及每英里、行程和人年的撞车率。 公共卫生相关性： 项目简介我们提议在国家一级对GDL进行全面评估，预计将提供所需的强有力的科学证据，以评估GDL是否确实产生更安全的司机，以及GDL对交通选择的影响程度。鉴于GDL对全国几乎所有青少年及其家庭都有影响，这些信息很重要，这样就可以决定是否应该继续使用GDL目前的形式，或者对GDL进行实质性修改，以实现更安全的驾驶，而不是限制驾驶。我们的项目有助于一系列研究、干预和政策修改，以在国家层面上将青少年驾驶的范式转变为更安全的驾驶。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Project Summary/Abstract. To respond three RFA research objectives, we propose to evaluate recent and imminent changes in graduated driver licensing (GDL) legislation that could influence the rate of unintentional child injuries from traffic crashes (#6). We will evaluate GDL effects in traffic crash rate per mile driven and non-driver injuries per person-year among teenagers aged 15-17 years, which are directly related to the effectiveness of GDL in preventing transportation injuries among children (#4) and the policy debate on the most effective way to reduce childhood injuries (#7). Importance: Our comprehensive evaluation of GDL at the national level will provide strong scientific evidence to assess whether GDL does, in fact, produce safer drivers and how GDL affects transport choices. The information is important so that decisions can be made as to whether GDL should be continued in its current form or substantially modified for safer driving as opposed to limiting driving. Objectives: We will examine the impact of GDL on driving behaviors, alternative transportation, crash rate per mile driven and non-driver injuries per person-year among teenagers aged 15-17 years, and crash rate per mile driven among 18 year olds. The Specific Aims: 1) Identify changes in driving behaviors and crash rate per mile driven among 15-17 year olds due to GDL implementation. Hypotheses: GDL implementation reduces total trips as a driver, miles driven, driver fatality rates per person-year, driver injury rates per person-year, and driver crash involvement rates per person-year. However, driver death rates, injury rates, and crash rates per trip and per mile driven will not be reduced by GDL. 2) Identify how GDL affects the use of alternative means of transportation (public transport, walking, bicycling, being driven by others) by teenagers aged 15-17 years and how GDL affects deaths and injuries among 15-17 year olds who are vehicle passengers, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Hypotheses: Among 15-17 year olds, GDL implementation increases walking, bicycling and riding as passengers, and increases their crash mortality rate, crash injury rate, and crash involvement rate as non-drivers per person-year. 3) Assess changes in driving behaviors and crash rate per mile driven among 18 year olds due to GDL implementation. Hypothesis: Traffic crash rate per mile driven among 18 year olds actually increases after GDL implementation. Study Design: natural experiment. The 1995, 2001, and 2008 National Household Travel Survey provide estimates on driving and transportation behaviors. The 1995-1996, 2001-2002, and 2008-2009 Fatality Analysis Reporting System and Police Accident Reports identify fatal and injury crashes. Setting: Nationwide (United States). Participants: age 15-18. Interventions: GDL classified as binary, ordinal (good, fair, marginal, poor), and specific components (entry age for learner permit, length of learner permit, hours of supervised driving, nighttime driving restriction, passenger restriction, duration of restriction, minimum age for intermediate phase, minimum age for full licensure). Outcome Measures: the number of miles and trips traveled per day, and crash rate per mile, trip, and person-year. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Project Narrative Our proposed comprehensive evaluation of GDL at the national level is expected to provide strong scientific evidence needed to assess whether GDL does, in fact, produce safer drivers, and the extent to which GDL affects transport choices. Given that GDL influences nearly all adolescents and their families nationwide, the information is important so that decisions can be made as to whether GDL should be continued in its current form or substantially modified for safer driving as opposed to limiting driving. Our project contributes to a continuum of research, intervention, and policy modification to shift the paradigm to safer driving among teenagers at the national level.