China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

描述（由申请人提供）：中国对人力资源调查的需求日益增长。中国是世界上老年人口最多的国家，也是当今世界上老龄化速度最快的国家之一。中国人口老龄化的速度远低于工业化国家，也比今天的发展中国家快得多。到2030年，中国老年人口比例预计将达到16%，高于新加坡、马来西亚、以色列和阿根廷等富裕得多的国家。中国的老年赡养比（25- 64岁壮年人口与64岁以上人口之比）预计将从2000年的近13降至2050年的2.1。中国的快速老龄化是由于寿命的延长（部分原因是中国收入的快速增长），以及中国实施了超过25年的独生子女政策导致的生育率的迅速下降。然而，在经历了30年的快速增长之后，经济增速从2008年底开始大幅下滑，这可能会给中国的老年人带来他们无法预见的严重负面经济冲击。2008年夏天，我们成功地进行了中国健康与退休纵向研究（CHARLS）的试点，该研究以美国的健康与退休研究（HRS）和其他HRS类型的调查为蓝本。我们在浙江和甘肃两个省收集了试点数据。甘肃是中国最贫穷的省份之一，农村人口众多。相比之下，浙江是中国工业化和向西方出口的主要中心之一。它的城市化程度远远超过甘肃省。我们获得了1570个家庭的样本，其中有45岁及以上的个人和2685个人（我们随机选择一个45岁以上的家庭和他们的配偶进行采访）。现在，我们建议在2011年和2013年开展前两波全国CHARLS。我们将把试点家庭纳入CHARLS，这将为用户提供一个即时的面板维度。我们预计样本量为10,210个有45岁以上成员的家庭，包括试点家庭，以及17,635个人，我们预计将对他们进行采访。我们将追踪迁居的家庭和个人，以达到低流失率。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): There is a growing need for a HRS-type survey in China. China has more elderly than any country in the world and is one of the fastest aging countries in the world today. China's population is aging at income levels far lower than was true for industrial countries and faster than today's developing countries. By 2030, China's elderly population share is expected to reach 16%, greater than much richer countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Israel, and Argentina. China's elderly support ratio (the number of prime-aged adults 25- 64 to the number older than 64) is projected to fall from nearly 13 in 2000 to 2.1 by 2050. Rapid aging in China is caused by growing length of life, in part resulting from China's rapid income growth) combined with rapid reductions in fertility associated with the implementation of China's very strong One Child Policy, which has been in place for over 25 years. Yet, after 30 years of rapid growth, growth fell drastically beginning in late 2008, potentially giving the elderly in China a serious negative economic shock that they could not have foreseen. In the summer of 2008 we successfully fielded a pilot for the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which was patterned on the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in the United States and other HRS-type surveys. We collected the pilot data in two provinces: Zhejiang and Gansu. Gansu is one of the poorest provinces in China and has a large rural population. Zhejiang, in contrast, is one of the leading centers of Chinese industrialization and export to the west. It is far more urban than Gansu province. We obtained a sample of 1,570 households with individuals 45 years old and older and 2,685 individuals (we randomly choose one person over 45 years per household to interview, plus their spouse). Now we are proposing to field the first two national waves of CHARLS in 2011 and 2013. We will include the pilot households in CHARLS, which will give users an immediate panel dimension. We expect a sample size of 10,210 households with a member over 45 years old, including the pilot households, and 17,635 individuals, whom we expect to interview. We will track households and individuals who have moved, to attain low attrition rates.