Econometric Analysis of Cigarette Purchases on Native American Reservations

项目总结 香烟税是一项被广泛使用的烟草控制政策，它可以通过阻止 抽烟。由于其法律地位，美洲原住民保留地(NAR)和原住民保留地 美国和加拿大低税或免税香烟的重要来源。在一些地理区域和 次，购买NAR的流行率达到40%以上。2010-11年度烟草使用补充剂数据 目前的人口调查表明，560万吸烟者生活在7个州，在这些州，NAR的流行 购买量在15%到35%之间。提高卷烟税的政策趋势意味着税收 通过NAR避税的情况可能会大幅增加。2014年卫生局局长报告，疾控中心(2015)， 和国家研究理事会医学研究所(2015)强调了公共卫生的重要性，以及 需要对包括NAR在内的走私香烟市场进行额外的研究。该项目的总体目标是 研究NAR香烟的可获得性对吸烟、生育结果和健康差距的影响。 目标1是对NAR香烟的可用性对成年人的影响进行准实验分析 吸烟参与。我们将分析来自多个大型美国和加拿大的个人层面的吸烟数据 辅助数据集。我们的计量经济学规范将检验4个假设：1)国家卷烟消费税 减少成人吸烟；2)税收对吸烟的影响取决于NAR的可用性 香烟；3)NAR香烟的供应具有增加吸烟的因果治疗效果；以及4) 税收和NAR香烟可获得性对成人吸烟的影响因社会经济地位而异。 目标2是对NAR香烟的可获得性对年轻人的影响进行准实验分析 吸烟参与度、每日吸烟量、开始吸烟情况。我们将测试列出的4个假设 在青年吸烟的背景下，目标1。目标3是对撞击进行准实验分析。 NAR香烟的可获得性对健康结果和健康差距的影响。我们将检验这4个假说 在健康结果方面列于目标1之下。目标4是进行准实验分析 预约卷烟供应对非预约卷烟价格的间接影响 零售商。我们的计量经济学分析将检验附近NAR上的卷烟销售是否与较低的 卷烟价格和销售量-预留。目标5是进行更具结构性的计量经济学分析 NAR香烟的可用性对个人关于吸烟、购买地点、 以及支付的香烟价格。我们将估计一个结构内生切换回归模型。估计 模型将直接估计因果关系链中的关键机制或环节：税收和距离的影响 关于购买NAR的可能性；以及购买NAR对支付的卷烟价格的影响。 X

PROJECT SUMMARY Cigarette taxation is a widely used tobacco control policy that can improve public health by discouraging smoking. Due to their legal status, Native American reservations (NARs) and First Nations reserves are important sources of lower- or un-taxed cigarettes in the U.S. and Canada. In some geographic areas and times, the prevalence of NAR purchases reaches over 40%. Data from the 2010-11 Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey implies that 5.6 million smokers live in 7 states where the prevalence of NAR purchases is between 15% and 35%. The policy trend towards higher cigarette taxes means that tax avoidance through NARs is likely to grow substantially. The 2014 Surgeon General's Report, the CDC (2015), and the National Research Council Institute of Medicine (2015) stress the public health significance of, and need for additional research into, contraband cigarette markets including NARs. The project's broad goal is to study the impact of NAR cigarette availability on smoking, birth outcomes, and health disparities. Aim 1 is to conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of the impact of the availability of NAR cigarettes on adult smoking participation. We will analyze individual-level data on smoking from multiple large U.S. and Canada secondary data sets. Our econometric specification will test 4 hypotheses: 1) that state cigarette excise taxes reduce adult smoking; 2) that the impact of taxes on smoking varies depending upon the availability of NAR cigarettes; 3) that the availability of NAR cigarettes has a causal treatment effect to increase smoking; and 4) that the impacts of taxes and NAR cigarette availability on adult smoking varies with socioeconomic status. Aim 2 is to conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of the impact of the availability of NAR cigarettes on youth smoking participation, cigarettes smoked per day, and smoking initiation. We will test the 4 hypotheses listed under Aim 1 in the context of youth smoking. Aim 3 is to conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of the impact of the availability of NAR cigarettes on health outcomes and health disparities. We will test the 4 hypotheses listed under Aim 1 in the context of health outcomes. Aim 4 is to conduct a quasi-experimental analysis of the indirect effects of the availability of reservation cigarettes on the prices charged by off-reservation cigarette retailers. Our econometric analysis will test whether cigarette sales on nearby NARs is associated with lower cigarette prices and sales off-reservation. Aim 5 is to conduct a more structural econometric analysis of the impact of the availability of NAR cigarettes on individuals' joint decisions about smoking, purchase location, and cigarette price paid. We will estimate a structural endogenous switching regression model. The estimated model will directly estimate key mechanisms or links in the chain of causality: the impact of taxes and distance on the probability of NAR purchases; and the impact of NAR purchases on cigarette prices paid. X