An Evaluation of the Night Restriction and Passenger Limitation Components of Gra

描述(由申请人提供)：以前的研究表明，GDL法律减少了16岁和17岁司机的撞车事故总数。对新手司机撞车事故的分析表明，%的事故发生在夜间，或一名十几岁的司机在运送一名青少年乘客时发生的撞车事故。这导致在大多数GDL法律中纳入了对夜间驾驶和在单独驾驶的早期阶段运送未成年乘客的限制。安全倡导者和州立法者对GDL法律的热情有所增加，目前约有44个州有这样的立法。然而，许多人缺乏夜间和客运禁令的典范，而这些似乎是有效法律的重要要素。此外，尚不清楚报道的涉及16岁和17岁司机的撞车事故减少是因为GDL法律减少了寻求驾照的青少年数量，还是GDL法律要求加强驾驶监督的保护性影响。这项研究项目的目的是超越以往的GDL研究，除一项研究外，所有研究都是使用单个州进行的。通过使用所有50个州和华盛顿的16年全国致命车祸普查的数据，我们计划解决以下问题：(1)GDL法律在多大程度上减少了16岁和17岁司机的致命车祸？(2)GDL法律中的夜间限制在多大程度上减少了新手司机在夜间和总体上的致命车祸？(3)乘客限制在多大程度上减少了新手司机在运送青少年乘客时的致命车祸？(4)如果有的话，作用是什么？性别和种族/民族在塑造GDL项目的效果方面起到了什么作用？(5)州GDL法律在多大程度上阻止或推迟了16岁和17岁的青少年寻求执照的决定，从而减少了他们卷入撞车事件的风险。将利用死亡分析报告系统(FARS)的16年数据(1990年至2005年)，对16岁和17岁的驾照率和致命车祸涉及的51个司法管辖区(50个州加上华盛顿特区)进行研究。为了获得GDL定律的广义效应大小估计，将使用纵向面板方法或“横截面-时间序列”方法进行分析。两个特殊限制条款将分别分析，如果共线性不是重大问题，则将同时分析这些条款。将创建适当的撞车子类别(夜间撞车和乘客撞车)，以评估GDL法律的两个特殊条款。这两个限制提供的额外致命碰撞节省将在没有这些功能的情况下确定。人口和驾照司机记录将用于计算许可费率，这些费率将与州GDL法律的存在或不存在有关。最后，将分析性别和种族/民族对有GDL的州和没有GDL或没有这两个关键组成部分的州的新手司机致命车祸参与率的潜在影响。这项研究将为政策制定者提供指导，说明在现有的分级驾驶执照(GDL)法律中增加夜间和乘客限制条款的潜在好处，或确保新的GDL法律包含此类条款的好处。性别和种族/民族在GDL计划的有效性中将发挥的作用(如果有的话)将被确定，以及与通过额外监督驾驶的保护作用相比，GDL通过减少执照对青少年撞车事件产生的有利影响的程度将被确定。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Previous studies have demonstrated that GDL laws reduce the total number of crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers. Analyses of novice driver crashes have indicated that 64% involve nighttime crashes or crashes in which a teenaged driver was transporting a teen passenger. This has led to the inclusion in most GDL laws of restrictions on nighttime driving and carrying underage passengers during the early period of solo driving. The enthusiasm of safety advocates and state legislators for GDL laws has increased, and currently, some 44 states have such legislation. Many, however, lack the model nighttime and passenger prohibitions that appear to be important elements for effective laws. Further, it is not clear whether the reported reductions in crashes involving 16- and 17-year-old drivers are the result of GDL laws reducing the number of teenagers seeking licenses or the protective impact of the increased driving supervision required by GDL laws. The objective of this research project is to go beyond the previous GDL studies, all but one of which has been conducted using individual states. By using 16 years of data from the national census of fatal crashes for all 50 states plus DC, we plan to address the following questions: (1) To what extent do GDL laws reduce fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers? (2) To what extent do nighttime restrictions in GDL laws reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements during nighttime hours and overall? (3) To what extent do passenger limitations reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements while transporting teen passengers? (4) What is the role, if any, that gender and race/ethnicity play in shaping the effects of GDL programs? (5) To what extent do state GDL laws discourage or delay the decision of 16- and 17-year-olds to seek licensing, thereby reducing their exposure to crash involvement. A 51-jurisdiction (50 states plus DC) study of 16- and 17-year-old driver licensing rates and involvements in fatal crashes using 16 years of data (1990 to 2005) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) will be conducted. To obtain generalized effect-size estimates for the GDL laws, the analyses will be done using a longitudinal panel approach or a "cross-sectional-time series" approach. Two special restriction provisions will be analyzed separately, and if collinearity is not a significant problem, these provisions will be analyzed simultaneously. Appropriate crash subcategories (nighttime crashes and crashes with passengers) will be created to evaluate the two special provisions of GDL laws. The additional fatal crash savings provided by these two restrictions beyond that provided by GDL laws will be determined without such features. Population and license driver records will be used to compute licensing rates and those rates will be related to the presence or absence of a state GDL law. Finally, the potential effects that gender and race/ethnicity have on novice driver fatal crash involvement rates in states with GDL and states without GDL or without the two key components will be analyzed. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE STATEMENT This study will provide guidance to policymakers on the potential benefits of adding nighttime and passenger restriction provisions to an existing graduated driver licensing (GDL) law or the benefit of ensuring that a new GDL law contains such provisions. The role (if any) that gender and race/ethnicity will play in the effectiveness of GDL programs will be determined, and the extent to which GDL produces its beneficial effect on teen crashes by reducing licensing compared to through the protective effect of additional supervised driving.