An Econometric Analysis of Cigarette Price Search and Tax Incidence

描述（由申请人提供）：香烟税是控烟政策中一个完善的部分。为了进一步提高我们对卷烟税后果的理解，拟议研究的广泛目标是对卷烟价格搜索进行探索性经济分析。拟议的项目将使用《2003年消费者人口调查烟草使用特别戒烟补充》中的国家数据。2003年TUSCS包含了关于价格搜索行为的新数据，包括：购买香烟的价格；吸烟者通常是买一包还是盒装香烟；他们最后一次购买香烟是否在居住州以外的其他州；以及他们最后一次购买香烟是通过互联网还是其他方式。为了更深入地探索跨境，我们还建议分析纽约州成人烟草调查的数据。与TUSCS类似，NYS-ATS包含过境和香烟支付价格的措施。纽约是研究过境问题的一个很好的“实验室”，因为它包括纽约市，那里有很高的地方香烟税，以及许多美国原住民保留地，这些地方是许多纽约人廉价香烟的重要来源。具体目标1是估计过境对香烟支付价格影响的计量经济学模型。我们将使用到边境的距离作为关键的工具变量，以确定一个内源性治疗效果模型和一个内源性交换回归模型的过境对价格的影响。过境是价格搜索的一种重要形式，可能对香烟的支付价格产生重大影响。估计其因果影响的大小本身就很重要，并将阐明有关消费者搜索行为在消费者对烟草控制政策的反应中所起作用的更广泛问题。具体目标2是利用计量经济学的结果，对香烟税的负担如何在不同的吸烟者群体中分配进行新颖的分析。该分析将扩展跨收入群体税收发生率的标准分析，以探索价格搜索如何改变税收发生率。与公共健康相关：香烟税通常被视为防止吸烟的一种方式，吸烟是美国可预防的主要死亡原因。拟议的项目将探索消费者在面对高税收的情况下寻找低价香烟的行动。通过提高我们对这种行为的理解，该项目将有助于制定更有效的烟草控制政策。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Cigarette taxation is a well-established part of tobacco control policy. To further improve our understanding of the consequences of cigarette taxes, the broad objective of the proposed research is to conduct an exploratory economic analysis of cigarette price search. The proposed project will use national data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Special Cessation Supplement to the Consumer Population Survey. The 2003 TUSCS contains novel data on price search behavior including: the price paid for cigarettes; whether smokers usually buy packs or cartons of cigarettes; whether their last cigarette purchase was in some other state than their state of residence; and whether their last cigarette purchase was over the internet or some other means. To explore border crossing in more depth, we also propose to analyze data from the New York State Adult Tobacco Survey. Similar to the TUSCS, the NYS-ATS contains measures of border crossing and the prices paid for cigarettes. New York is a good "laboratory" to study border crossing because it includes New York City, which has a high local cigarette tax, and a number of Native American Reservations, which are important sources of low price cigarettes for many New Yorkers. Specific Aim 1 is to estimate econometric models of the impact of border crossing on the price paid for cigarettes. We will use distance to the border as the key instrumental variable to identify an endogenous treatment effect model and an endogenous switching regressions model of the impact of border crossing on prices. Border crossing is an important form of price search that might have a major impact on the price paid for cigarettes. Estimating the magnitude of its causal impact is important in its own right and will shed light on broader questions about the role consumer search behavior plays in consumer responses to tobacco control policies. Specific Aim 2 is to use the econometric results to conduct a novel analysis of how the burden of cigarette taxes is distributed across different groups of smokers. The analysis will extend the standard analysis of tax incidence across income groups to explore how price search changes tax incidence. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Cigarette taxes are often seen as way to prevent smoking, the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S. The proposed project will explore actions consumers take to find lower price cigarettes even in the face of high taxes. By improving our understanding of this behavior, the project will contribute to more effective tobacco control policies.