Planning for Avian Influenza Outbreaks and Potential Pandemics in Thailand

描述(申请人提供)：本次申请全球传染病培训计划旨在加强流行病学研究能力，以计划和应对泰国新出现的流感暴发。2004年发现人感染禽流感病例后，泰国和国际上都开始担心新一轮流感大流行即将开始。过去一年对这一新出现疾病的深入了解说明了泰国流行病学家研究能力的强大。然而，禽流感的经验表明，有必要通过传染病流行病学培训来扩大泰国科学家的人数。此外，流行病学家应对这一新挑战所需的培训范围超过了现有的培训计划。预防新出现的流感病毒株的流行需要国家和国际的反应。流行病学家必须为计划和实时应对提供科学投入。拟议的培训将侧重于在暴发初期向决策者提供最多信息的方法。在过去的几年里，泰国公共卫生部(MOPH)和约翰霍普金斯大学布隆伯格公共卫生学院的教职员工在各种传染病研究项目上建立了牢固的联系。目前，这项提议的研究人员正在进行由美国国立卫生研究院(NIGMS)资助的研究，以开发一种新型流感变种在泰国人口中传播的计算模拟，如果出现这种情况的话。计算模拟为在实际事件发生前评估疫苗、抗病毒药物的使用、隔离等控制措施提供了一个宝贵的工具。运行模拟还可以提供有关流行病过程的实时信息，并在评估不断变化的控制措施要求方面提供信息。拟议的培训将发展泰国流行病学家利用新的理论和计算工具与传统流行病学方法相配合的能力。拟议的受训人数包括约翰·霍普金斯大学的两名每小时公共卫生标准的受训人员(每人为期一年)，通过实地流行病学培训方案在卫生部接受国家培训的25名长期受训人员，以及至少50名通过远程教育和短期国内讲习班接受短期培训的受训人员。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application to the Global Infectious Disease Training Program seeks to strengthen the epidemiologic research capacity for planning and response to emerging influenza outbreaks in Thailand. The detection of human cases of avian influenza in 2004 initiated concern both in Thailand and internationally that a new pandemic of influenza was about to begin. The depth of knowledge that has been gained over the last year about this emerging disease is illustrative of the strength of the research capabilities of Thai epidemiologists. However, the avian influenza experience has demonstrated the need to expand the number of scientists in Thailand with training in infectious disease epidemiology. Additionally, the scope of training required of epidemiologists to meet this new challenge exceeds existing training programs. Prevention of epidemics of newly emergent strains of influenza require national and international response. Epidemiologists must provide scientific input to planning and response in real-time. The proposed training would focus on methodologies that provide the most information to decision-makers during an incipient outbreak. Over the past several years, the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) of Thailand and faculty at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have formed strong links on a variety of research projects on infectious diseases. Currently, investigators on this proposal are engaged in NIH (NIGMS) funded research to develop computational simulations of the spread of a novel variant of influenza in the Thai population should one emerge. Computational simulation provides an invaluable tool for conducting "epidemiology in silicon" to evaluate control measures such as the use of vaccines, antivirals, quarantine before an actual event. Functioning simulations could also provide real-time information on the course of epidemics and in evaluating changing requirements for control measures. The proposed training will develop the capacity for Thai epidemiologists to utilize new theoretical and computational tools in concert with traditional epidemiological approaches. The number of trainees proposed includes two MPH (each one year long) trainees at Johns Hopkins, 25 long-term in country trainees at the MOPH through the Field Epidemiology Training Program, and at least 50 short-term trainees through distance education and short-term in-country workshops.