Does Graduated Driver Licensing Produce Safer Teenage Drivers

描述（由申请人提供）： 项目概要/摘要。为了响应RFA的三个研究目标，我们建议评估最近和即将发生的变化，在毕业的驾驶执照（GDL）立法，可能会影响意外儿童受伤的交通事故（#6）。我们将评估GDL对15-17岁青少年每人每年每英里驾驶的交通事故率和非驾驶员伤害的影响，这与GDL在预防儿童交通伤害方面的有效性（#4）和减少儿童伤害的最有效方法的政策辩论（#7）直接相关。重要性：我们在国家一级对GDL的全面评估将提供强有力的科学证据，以评估GDL是否确实产生更安全的驾驶员，以及GDL如何影响交通选择。这些信息很重要，因此可以决定GDL是否应继续以其当前形式或大幅修改以实现更安全的驾驶，而不是限制驾驶。目的：我们将研究GDL对驾驶行为的影响，替代交通工具，15-17岁青少年每人每年驾驶每英里的撞车率和非驾驶员伤害，以及18奥尔兹青少年每英里驾驶的撞车率。具体目标：1）确定GDL实施后15-17奥尔兹青少年驾驶行为和每英里撞车率的变化。假设条件：GDL的实施减少了驾驶员的总行程、驾驶里程、每人年的驾驶员死亡率、每人年的驾驶员受伤率和每人年的驾驶员碰撞率。然而，驾驶员死亡率、受伤率和每次行程和每英里驾驶的撞车率不会因GDL而降低。2)确定GDL如何影响15-17岁的青少年使用替代交通工具（公共交通，步行，骑自行车，由他人驾驶），以及GDL如何影响15-17奥尔兹的车辆乘客，行人和骑自行车者的死亡和受伤。假设：在15-17奥尔兹的青少年中，GDL的实施增加了步行，骑自行车和乘坐乘客，并增加了他们的碰撞死亡率，碰撞受伤率和碰撞参与率。3)评估GDL实施后18岁青少年驾驶行为和每英里撞车率的变化。假设：在GDL实施后，18奥尔兹每英里的交通事故率实际上增加了。研究设计：自然实验。1995年、2001年和2008年的全国家庭旅行调查提供了对驾驶和交通行为的估计。1995-1996年、2001-2002年和2008-2009年的死亡分析报告系统和警察事故报告确定了致命和受伤的撞车事故。设置：全国（美国）。参加者：15-18岁。干预措施：GDL分为二元、有序（好、一般、边缘、差）和特定成分（学习许可证的进入年龄、学习许可证的长度、监督驾驶的小时数、夜间驾驶限制、乘客限制、限制的持续时间、中间阶段的最低年龄、完全许可证的最低年龄）。结果测量：每天行驶的英里数和行程数，以及每英里、行程和人年的撞车率。 公共卫生相关性： 我们提出的在国家层面对GDL进行全面评估的建议有望提供强有力的科学证据，以评估GDL是否确实会产生更安全的驾驶员，以及GDL对交通选择的影响程度。鉴于GDL影响了全国几乎所有的青少年及其家庭，因此这些信息非常重要，可以决定GDL是否应该以目前的形式继续下去，还是为了更安全的驾驶而进行大幅修改，而不是限制驾驶。我们的项目有助于研究，干预和政策修改的连续性，以在国家一级将范式转变为青少年更安全的驾驶。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Project Summary/Abstract. To respond three RFA research objectives, we propose to evaluate recent and imminent changes in graduated driver licensing (GDL) legislation that could influence the rate of unintentional child injuries from traffic crashes (#6). We will evaluate GDL effects in traffic crash rate per mile driven and non-driver injuries per person-year among teenagers aged 15-17 years, which are directly related to the effectiveness of GDL in preventing transportation injuries among children (#4) and the policy debate on the most effective way to reduce childhood injuries (#7). Importance: Our comprehensive evaluation of GDL at the national level will provide strong scientific evidence to assess whether GDL does, in fact, produce safer drivers and how GDL affects transport choices. The information is important so that decisions can be made as to whether GDL should be continued in its current form or substantially modified for safer driving as opposed to limiting driving. Objectives: We will examine the impact of GDL on driving behaviors, alternative transportation, crash rate per mile driven and non-driver injuries per person-year among teenagers aged 15-17 years, and crash rate per mile driven among 18 year olds. The Specific Aims: 1) Identify changes in driving behaviors and crash rate per mile driven among 15-17 year olds due to GDL implementation. Hypotheses: GDL implementation reduces total trips as a driver, miles driven, driver fatality rates per person-year, driver injury rates per person-year, and driver crash involvement rates per person-year. However, driver death rates, injury rates, and crash rates per trip and per mile driven will not be reduced by GDL. 2) Identify how GDL affects the use of alternative means of transportation (public transport, walking, bicycling, being driven by others) by teenagers aged 15-17 years and how GDL affects deaths and injuries among 15-17 year olds who are vehicle passengers, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Hypotheses: Among 15-17 year olds, GDL implementation increases walking, bicycling and riding as passengers, and increases their crash mortality rate, crash injury rate, and crash involvement rate as non-drivers per person-year. 3) Assess changes in driving behaviors and crash rate per mile driven among 18 year olds due to GDL implementation. Hypothesis: Traffic crash rate per mile driven among 18 year olds actually increases after GDL implementation. Study Design: natural experiment. The 1995, 2001, and 2008 National Household Travel Survey provide estimates on driving and transportation behaviors. The 1995-1996, 2001-2002, and 2008-2009 Fatality Analysis Reporting System and Police Accident Reports identify fatal and injury crashes. Setting: Nationwide (United States). Participants: age 15-18. Interventions: GDL classified as binary, ordinal (good, fair, marginal, poor), and specific components (entry age for learner permit, length of learner permit, hours of supervised driving, nighttime driving restriction, passenger restriction, duration of restriction, minimum age for intermediate phase, minimum age for full licensure). Outcome Measures: the number of miles and trips traveled per day, and crash rate per mile, trip, and person-year. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Project Narrative Our proposed comprehensive evaluation of GDL at the national level is expected to provide strong scientific evidence needed to assess whether GDL does, in fact, produce safer drivers, and the extent to which GDL affects transport choices. Given that GDL influences nearly all adolescents and their families nationwide, the information is important so that decisions can be made as to whether GDL should be continued in its current form or substantially modified for safer driving as opposed to limiting driving. Our project contributes to a continuum of research, intervention, and policy modification to shift the paradigm to safer driving among teenagers at the national level.