Development of advanced calibration methods for computationally expensive hydrologic simulation models

环境或水文模拟模型是复杂环境系统的数学近似。 健全的环境管理决定，例如如何减轻气候变化对水资源的未来影响，通常是以环境模拟模型预测为基础的。我的研究产生了支持这些模型开发的先进工具。 使用我的工具的高级建模者应该能够更快地构建更好的模型。 更重要的是，我的工作支持这些模型的应用，当选定的模型应用于给定的案例研究时，我的工具确保模型对过去系统行为的预测尽可能准确。 准确预测过去的系统行为往往是使用模拟模型为环境决策提供信息的先决条件。

Environmental or hydrologic simulation models are mathematical approximations of complex environmental systems. Sound environmental management decisions such as how to mitigate future impacts of climate change on water resources are typically based on environmental simulation model predictions. My research generates advanced tools that support the development of these models. Advanced modellers using my tools should be able to build better models faster. Even more important, my work supports the application of these models such that when a selected model is applied to a given case study, my tools make sure the model predictions of the past system behaviour are as accurate as possible. Accurate predictions of past system behaviour is often a prerequisite for using a simulation model to inform environmental decision-making.