Growth and survival of lodgepole pine genotypes under extreme climate events: risk assessment and climate change adaptation strategies

我们通过确定与气候变化有关的风险，并制定减轻或补救对加拿大森林资源的影响的战略，在“自然资源和能源”目标领域内处理“环境绩效”这一研究主题。我们利用一个独特的研究机会来研究气候变异性和气候变化对加拿大西部最重要的商业自然资源之一的松林的影响。这项研究是基于对长期遗传田间试验进行的破坏性全树抽样，这些试验在不列颠哥伦比亚省被山松甲虫疫情摧毁。全树干分析使我们能够重建历史气候对重要性状的影响，如树木蓄积增量和碳固存。基因试验设计使我们能够得出在广泛种植环境中复制的一组具有代表性的基因类型的结论，并确定用于重新造林的有弹性和多产的基因类型。通过利用两种独立的实验和经验研究方法--遗传来源测试和树状年代学重建，我们的目标是对与气候变化相关的风险进行可靠的估计，并为公共政策制定提供知识库。我们的支持组织，不列颠哥伦比亚省林业部，制定和执行省级政策和法规，涉及重新造林树种的选择、测试和分配，并在实施以科学为基础的政策方面有着良好的记录。不列颠哥伦比亚省每年种植约8000万棵樟子松幼苗，拟议的项目将通过利用这一活动提高种植的樟子松林的遗传弹性和生产力，从而为加拿大带来深远的好处。

We addresses the research topic "Environmental Performance" within the target area "Natural Resources and Energy" by identifying risks associated with climate change, and by developing strategies to mitigate or remediate impacts on Canada's forest resources. We take advantage of a unique research opportunity to study effects of climate variability and climate change on lodgepole pine forest, one of the commercially most important natural resources in western Canada. The research is based on destructive whole-tree sampling of long-term genetic field trials that were destroyed by the mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia. Whole-tree stem analysis allows us to reconstruct historical climate effects on important traits, such as tree volume increments and carbon sequestration. The genetic trial design allows us to draw conclusions for a representative set of genotypes replicated over a wide range of planting environments, and to identify resilient and productive genotypes for reforestation. By drawing on two independent experimental and empirical research approaches, genetic provenance testing and dendrochronological reconstructions, we aim to develop dependable estimates of risks associated with climate change, and to deliver a knowledge base for public policy development. Our supporting organization, The BC Ministry of Forests, develops and implements provincial policies and regulations regarding selection, testing, and distribution of tree seed for reforestation and has a track-record of implementing science-based policy. Approximately 80 million lodgepole pine seedlings per year are planted in British Columbia, and the proposed project could yield profound benefits to Canada by leveraging this activity to improve the genetic resilience and productivity of planted lodgepole pine forests.