Bifurcation and Game Theoretic Models for Sustainable Forest Management

在过去的二十年里，森林管理已经从持续收获木材管理(SYTM)转变为被称为可持续森林管理(SFM)的森林生态系统管理。在SYTM中，森林经营模型基于单一稳态(或均衡)的概念，这是木材生产过程中凸性和负反馈假设的结果。可持续森林管理决策的建模必须基于真实和复杂的森林生态系统过程。同样，森林管理需要共同管理，而不是由国家/私营机构管理，以纳入不同利益攸关方的森林价值观。因此，为了实现森林经营向森林可持续经营的成功转型，迫切需要发展新的森林经营模型和博弈论模型来分析森林联合经营中合作伙伴之间的互动关系。在这项计划中，将为五大湖圣劳伦斯地区以针叶木和阔叶木为主的北方混交林以及以枫树、枫树和山毛榉为主的阔叶林开发森林管理模式，纳入不同树种之间以及树木和动物物种之间的相互作用。这些模型的主要特点将是融合了凸凹增长函数和多重均衡。将在这些模型的基础上提出SFM规则。此外，还将建立三个演化博弈论模型来分析在北方倡议下，自然资源部(MNR)和第一民族社区(FNC)、森工和FNC以及自然资源部、森工和FNC之间可能共同管理的情况。博弈论模型的结果将被用来建议共同管理协议的基本特征。将培养3名博士、3名硕士和3名本科生；将发表15篇推荐性论文和3篇管理简报，并将进行14次会议演讲。该计划将扩展森林管理的理论边界，并为森林管理者制定森林管理规则和共同管理协议提供指导。

In the last two decades, forest management has been transforming from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to forest ecosystem management known as sustainable forest management (SFM). In the SYTM, forest management modeling was based on the concept of a single steady state (or equilibrium), an outcome of the assumptions of convexity and negative feedbacks in timber production process. The modeling for SFM decisions has to be based on real and complex forest ecosystem processes. Similarly, SFM requires co-management, rather than a management by state/private agencies, to incorporate forest values of different stakeholders. Hence, for the successful transition of forest management to SFM, there is urgent need to develop new forest management models and game theoretic models to analyze interactions between partners in forest co-management. In this program, forest management models, incorporating interactions between different tree species and between tree and animal species, will be developed for softwood-dominated and hardwood-dominated mixedwood boreal forests; and maple, and maple and beech dominated hardwood forests of the Great Lakes St Lawrence region. The main features of these models will be the incorporation of convex-concave growth functions and multiple equilibriums. SFM rules will be suggested on the basis of these models. In addition, three evolutionary game theoretical models will be developed to analyze the conditions under possible co-management situations, between Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) and First Nation Communities (FNCs), forest industry and FNCs, and the MNR, forest industry, and FNCs, under the Northern Boreal Initiative. The results of game theoretical models will be used to suggest basic features of co-management agreements. Three Ph.D., 3 M.Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 15 refereed papers and 3 management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. The program will extend theoretical boundaries of forest management and provide guidance to forest managers in developing SFM rules and co-management agreements.