Projecting marine plankton responses to climate change using realized niches

* * 0 * 0 * 1 * 356 * 2032 *山埃里森大学* 16 * 4 * 2384 * 14.0 * * * * *** * 正常* 0 * * * * * 假*假*假* * en - us *是* X-NONE * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **** /* 样式定义* / *表。MsoNormalTable* {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"；* mso-tstyle-rowband-size: 0;* mso-tstyle-colband-size: 0;* mso-style-noshow:是的;* mso-style-priority: 99;* mso-style-parent:“”;* mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt；* mso-para-margin: 0厘米;* mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt;* mso-pagination: widow-orphan;*字体大小:12.0分;*字体类型:威尔士;* mso-ascii-font-family:威尔士;* mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;* mso-hansi-font-family:威尔士;* mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;****海洋浮游植物是单细胞的、微小的光合生物，分布在世界海洋的100米以上。总的来说，它们负责地球上大约一半的光合作用，并为整个海洋食物网提供资源。光合作用将无机碳转化为有机碳，由于一些有机碳沉入深海，浮游植物在从大气中去除二氧化碳方面发挥了积极作用。微浮游动物和中浮游动物是介导营养转移和向深海输出光合碳的主要生物。海洋中的许多条件将在下个世纪发生变化，包括温度、表面风速、混合层的深度以及浮游植物生长所需的营养资源的分布。因此，浮游生物生产力的变化预计会对海洋食物网和碳的生物地球化学循环产生影响。目前关于浮游生物生理学和生态学的知识还不足以对预期的变化作出可信的预测。***我将利用浮游生物存在和丰度的时空调查，以及温度、盐度、资源可用性和海洋表面混合等环境数据，建立模型，描述对几十种浮游植物和浮游动物物种中的每一种都有利的条件。这些模型既可以用来描述对每种物种有利的栖息地特征，也可以用来预测每种物种将在何时何地被发现。这些模型可以在几个方面使用：(1)填补我们非常稀疏的当代海洋采样的空白，并开发更详细的浮游生物地理和季节性地图；(2)在未来海洋条件模型的指导下，对未来海洋中浮游生物生物地理的变化进行预测；(3)研究这些物种分布模型在生态上重要的浮游植物和浮游动物物种中保持不变或可能随时间变化的程度。***该项目的工作将增加我们对海洋食物网基础的认识，有助于为未来一个世纪浮游植物和浮游动物分布的变化提出详细的假设，并将指导复杂的三维海洋模型的开发人员，因为他们改善了这些模型中浮游生物的表现

* * 0* 0* 1* 356* 2032* Mount Allison University* 16* 4* 2384* 14.0* * * * *** * Normal* 0* * * * * false* false* false* * EN-US* JA* X-NONE* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **** /* Style Definitions */*table.MsoNormalTable* {mso-style-name:"Table Normal";* mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;* mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;* mso-style-noshow:yes;* mso-style-priority:99;* mso-style-parent:"";* mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;* mso-para-margin:0cm;* mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;* mso-pagination:widow-orphan;* font-size:12.0pt;* font-family:Cambria;* mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;* mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;* mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;* mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}****Marine phytoplankton are unicellular, microscopic photosynthetic organisms found throughout the upper 100 m of the world's oceans. In aggregate they are responsible for about half of the total of all photosynthesis on Earth and provide the resources for the entire marine food web. Photosynthesis converts inorganic carbon to organic carbon and since some of the organic carbon sinks into the deep ocean, phytoplankton play an active role in removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Micro- and mesozooplankton are the primary organisms which mediate both trophic transfer and export of photosynthetic carbon to the deep sea. Many conditions in the oceans will change over the next century including temperature, surface wind speeds, the depth of the mixed layer, and the distribution of nutrient resources required by phytoplankton to grow. Thus changes in the productivity of plankton are expected with consequences for the marine food web and the biogeochemical cycling of carbon. Current knowledge of plankton physiology and ecology is insufficient to make credible projections of the anticipated changes.***I will use spatial and temporal surveys of plankton presence and abundance, together with environmental data such as temperature, salinity, the availability of resources, and mixing of the surface ocean to produce models describing the conditions favourable to each of dozens of phytoplankton and zooplankton species. These models can be used to both characterize the habitats favourable to each species and to project when and where each species will be found. These models can be used in several ways: (1) to fill in gaps in our very sparse sampling of the contemporary ocean and develop more detailed maps of plankton biogeography and seasonality, (2) to make projections of changes in the biogeography of plankton in the future ocean, guided by models of future ocean conditions, and (3) to study the extent these species distribution models are constant or are likely to change over time, for ecologically important phytoplankton and zooplankton species.***The work in this project will increase our knowledge of the base of the marine food web, help develop detailed hypotheses for changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions over the coming century, and will guide developers of complex 3d ocean models as they improve the representation of plankton in these models.***