Natural and Externally Forced Hydroclimatic Variability in the North Saskatchewan River Basin

拟议项目的目标是向工业合作伙伴EPCOR公用事业公司提供对北萨斯喀彻温河流域未来气候和径流的预测，其中既考虑了自然变异性，也考虑了人为造成的气候变化。我们将评估这些预测中的不确定性，并确定达到极端水位的可能性。该项目将以最新一代区域气候模型的成果为基础。我们将比较不同RCM和同一RCM的多次运行的气候和径流预测。这将使我们能够确定使用不同的模型、使用不同的温室气体排放情景或区域气候制度的自然可变性在多大程度上造成了不确定性。我们将把气候模型的数据与900年来基于流域树木生长的每周河流流量进行比较，并使用一种方法将年度流量调整为每周估计值。我们还将把地下水井的观测与气象站数据和地下水补给的气候模型模拟联系起来。我们对气候和水的可变性的预测和分析将为EPCOR公用事业公司提供更好的能力，以规划和实施适应气候变化的水管理战略。

The objective of the proposed project is to provide the industrial partner, EPCOR Utilities Inc., with projections of future climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) that consider both natural variability and human caused climate change. We will evaluate the uncertainty in these projections and determine the probability of reaching extreme water levels. This project will be based on outputs from the latest generation of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). We will compare climate and runoff projections from different RCMs and multiple runs of the same RCM. This will enable us to determine how much uncertainty is due to using different models, using different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, or to the natural variability of the regional climate regime. We will compare data from the climate models to 900 years of weekly river flows based on the growth of trees in the river basin, and a method of scaling the annual flows to weekly estimates. We will also relate observations from groundwater wells to weather station data and to climate model simulations of groundwater recharge. Our projections and analysis of the variability in climate and water will provide EPCOR Utilities Inc. with improved capacity for planning and implementing adaptive strategies for water management under climate change.