High resolution modelling of weather over the Grand Banks

Wood Environment and Infrastructure Solutions为纽芬兰海上油气行业提供详细的天气预报服务。挑战包括大风、巨浪和大雾。这些影响到这些设施的安全运行，以及设备和人员的运输。我们的大部分活动将集中在评估和改进WRF （NCAR开发的天气研究和预报模型）在大浅滩地区天气预报中的应用。模型的输出可以为波浪模型（WW3）提供输入，并将探索与海洋和波浪模型的耦合。目标是提高对恶劣天气的预测，包括大风和大雾，以及海浪条件，以便海上设施及其周围的作业能够安全有效地进行。雾对海上站点的潜在影响阻碍了直升机着陆，这是一个具体的问题，更好的预测可以避免“自回飞”。重要的因素包括在运行模型时确定要吸收哪些数据。这可能包括来自GOES-E和其他卫星的信息，以及在海上设施或该地区船舶上进行的现场测量。大浅滩是世界上雾气最浓的地方之一，在夏季的几个月里，雾的出现时间高达50%。水蒸气凝结成水滴和在地球大气边界层中形成雾或低云，涉及热与水蒸气的湍流混合、云的微物理过程和热量的辐射传递之间的复杂平衡。提高我们对导致这些海洋雾事件发生、强度、深度和持续的条件的定量理解是该研究的第二个重点。与这些活动紧密结合，我们将寻求改进WRF和其他天气预报模型中雾的处理方法，将WRF模型应用于单列和可操作的3-D模式，并评估该地区雾、大风和WW3海况的表现。

Wood Environment and Infrastructure Solutions provide detailed weather forecasts for oil & gas industry operations offshore from Newfoundland. Among the challenges are high winds, rough seas and fog. These impact the safe operation of these facilities, and the transportation of equipment and personnel. Most of our activity will center on evaluation and improving the application of WRF (the Weather Research and Forecasting model developed at NCAR) to weather forecasting in the Grand Banks area. Output from the model can provide input to a wave model (WW3) and couplings with ocean and wave models will be explored. The goal is to improve the forecasts of adverse weather, including high winds and fog, plus wave conditions so that operations on and around offshore installations can be conducted safely and efficiently. The potential impacts of fog at offshore sites preventing helicopter landings is a specific issue where better forecasting can avoid "boomerang flights". Important factors will involve determining which data to assimilate when the models are run operationally. This may include information from GOES-E and other satellites as well as in-situ measurements made on the offshore facilities or from ships in the area.The Grand Banks is among the foggiest places in the world with fog occurring up to 50% of the time in the summer months. The condensation of water vapour into droplets and the creation of fog or low cloud in the Earth's atmospheric boundary layer involves a complex balance between turbulent mixing of heat and water vapour, cloud micro-physical processes and radiative transfers of heat. Improving our quantitative understanding of the conditions leading to the occurrence, intensity, depth and persistence of these marine fog events is a secondary focus of the study. Coupled closely with these activities we will be seeking ways to refine the treatment of fog in WRF and other weather forecast models, applying the WRF model, in both Single Column and operational 3-D modes and evaluating the performance in this region, for fog, high winds and, using WW3, for sea state.