Winter carbon losses in wetland ecosystem under current and future climates

高纬度寒冷地区，包括北极和加拿大北部地区，变暖的速度是现在的两倍多 与地球上的其他地方一样，最大的变暖发生在冬季。考虑到一个主要的过程 负责二氧化碳(CO2)排放，微生物呼吸，即使在 在零度以下的气温下，冬季是碳循环的关键期。因此，气候变化期间的二氧化碳排放 随着气候变暖，非生长季(NGS；秋季、冬季、春季)预计将增加。然而，在那里 对寒冷地区生态系统当前NGS二氧化碳排放量的估计存在很大的不确定性。加拿大的 温带至亚北极湿地和永久冻土泥炭地储存着大量的碳，这些碳很容易受到 未来气候变暖情景下的损失。因此，理解调节过程的因素 在NGS期间控制温室气体排放对于预测这些脆弱群体的命运至关重要 碳储存以及制定气候适应和缓解战略。重点放在这些关键的 生态系统，我们聚集了来自多个学科的加拿大领导人，来自不同大学，与联邦政府 政府科学家和政策制定者确定NGS碳循环的驱动因素，开发 基于流程的环境模型，并估计二氧化碳排放量。在这样做的过程中，我们将解决有关 在NGS排放方面的差距，以提供数据和工具，以评估#年冬季变暖缓解的影响 控制泛加拿大湿地生态系统的碳损失。通过历史数据的组合 综合、实验室实验和建模，拟议的研究将集中在1)确定 驱动微生物NGS碳循环的水文和气候因素；以及2)将信息和 纳入描述控制NGS排放的基本过程的模型中的数据 加拿大林业部门的碳预算模型(CBM-CFS)。这将提高我们追踪 并预测寒冷地区湿地生态系统的碳通量，并进行改进，以证据为基础 估计冬季碳损失和评估缓解策略的建议。

High latitude cold regions, including Arctic and northern areas of Canada, are warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, with the greatest warming occurring during the winter. Given that a major process responsible for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, microbial respiration, increases with warming even at sub-zero temperatures, winter is a critical period for carbon cycling. Consequently, CO2 emissions during the non-growing season (NGS; fall, winter, spring) are expected to increase as the climate warms. However, there is large uncertainty in estimates of current NGS CO2 emissions from cold region ecosystems. Canada's temperate to subarctic wetlands and permafrost peatlands hold large stores of carbon which are susceptible to loss under future climate warming scenarios. Therefore, understanding the factors which regulate the processes controlling greenhouse gas emissions during the NGS is critical for predicting the fate of these vulnerable carbon stocks and for creating climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. With a focus on these critical ecosystems, we bring together Canadian leaders from multiple disciplines from across universities with federal government scientists and policy makers to determine the drivers of NGS carbon cycling, develop process-based environmental models, and estimate CO2 emissions. In doing so, we will address the knowledge gaps on NGS emissions to provide data and tools to evaluate the impact of winter warming mitigation in controlling carbon losses from pan-Canadian wetland ecosystems. Through a combination of historical data synthesis, laboratory experiments and modelling, the proposed research will focus on 1) determining the hydrological and climatic factors driving microbial NGS carbon cycling; and 2) integrating the information and data gained into models describing the underlying processes controlling NGS emissions for incorporation into the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). This will advance our ability to track and predict carbon fluxes in cold regions wetland ecosystems and make improved, evidence-based recommendations to estimate winter carbon losses and evaluate mitigation strategies.