Eco-evolutionary dynamics of large vertebrate populations - Dynamique éco-évolutive de populations de grands vertébrés

我的计划的长期目标是记录并最终预测遗传和表型性状变化对总体种群动态的影响，特别是在人类利用的物种中。为此，我和我的团队试图了解种内遗传和表型多样性如何塑造野生种群的生态和进化过程。几项研究已经证明了对目前前所未有的快速人为环境变化的表型反应。个体之间的表型差异可以影响它们的适合度和平均生命率，最近的研究表明，性状分布的变化可以影响种群增长率。虽然人口动态感兴趣的人口学家和生态学家至少两个世纪，很少有定量的实证例子说明基于遗传的表型效应对人口增长的重要性。因此，我们对生态和进化过程的相对贡献知之甚少（即，随着时间的推移，平均人口表型的变化），人口动态，尽管他们的保护，自然资源管理和进化人口学的根本重要性。在接下来的五年里，我和我的学生将把我们的工作扩展到三个相互关联的短期目标：I）记录当前生态因素的时空变化如何影响性状进化和种群动态; II）评估过去的选择如何影响未来的进化潜力; III）开发和应用生态进化模型来预测可塑性和进化性状变化对种群动态的影响。为了实现这些目标，我的研究团队将利用对脊椎动物（棕熊、大角羊、树燕、人类）的长期纵向研究（9-200年）中非常详细的数据。我的计划将提供重大进展，以预测遗传和表型性状变化对种群动态的影响。通过这些进步，我将为生物保护，资源管理和学术界的相关职位准备大量高素质的人才。

The long-term goal of my program is to document and ultimately forecast the consequences of both genetic and phenotypic trait changes on population dynamics in general, and particularly in species exploited by humans. To do so, my group and I seek to understand how intraspecific genetic and phenotypic diversity shape ecological and evolutionary processes in wild populations. Several studies have documented phenotypic response to current unprecedentedly fast rates of anthropogenic environmental changes. Phenotypic differences between individuals can affect their fitness and mean vital rates and it has recently been shown that changes in trait distribution can affect population growth rate. Although population dynamics have interested demographers and ecologists for at least two centuries, very few quantitative empirical examples illustrating the importance of genetically-based phenotypic effects on population growth are available. We thus know little about the relative contribution of ecological and evolutionary processes (i.e., change in mean population phenotype over time) to population dynamics, despite their fundamental importance for conservation, natural resource management and evolutionary demography. Over the next five years, my students and I will expand our work to three interconnected shorter-term objectives: I) Document how current spatio-temporal variation in ecological factors that affects trait evolution and population dynamics; II) Evaluate how past selection influences future evolutionary potential; III) Develop and apply eco-evolutionary models to forecast the effect of plastic and evolutionary trait changes on population dynamics. To achieve these objectives, my research team will exploit exceptionally detailed data from long-term longitudinal studies (9-200 years) of vertebrates (brown bears, bighorn sheep, tree swallows, humans). My program will provide major advances to forecast the consequences of both genetic and phenotypic trait changes on population dynamics. Through these advances, I will prepare numerous highly qualified personnel for relevant positions in biological conservation, resource management, and academia.