Quantitative modelling for Capacity Planning in Mental Health and Addictions With a Focus on Dementia

我的2019-2024研究计划侧重于开发运筹学决策支持模型，支持复杂的心理健康和成瘾（MH&A）部门的决策者和规划者。在加拿大，并购服务是由省级资助的公共和私人服务机构组成的复杂网络提供的。需求正在增长，特别是在痴呆症方面，预计到2031年需求将增长66%，而供需之间的关系却知之甚少。资金有限，而且往往是被动分配，而且没有分析这些资金是否有助于改善该部门的服务提供。此外，医疗保健部门在信息孤岛中运作，服务整合有限，而且并购政策没有考虑到与更广泛的卫生部门的整合点。我的项目的短期研究重点将是社区精神卫生服务的能力规划模型，重点是痴呆症，包括对急性和慢性护理能力的影响。长期重点将扩大到更广泛的并购行业考虑。在过去的20-30年里，运筹学已经在急症护理卫生保健系统中根深蒂固，并且在社区和长期护理部门的影响力越来越大。我过去和现在的研究项目一直是这一变化的关键驱动因素。本研究项目的愿景是推动类似的长期发展能力规划模型在并购。我打算在这个研究项目中大量使用系统动力学（SD）来进行战略政策层面的决策。通过我和其他同事的工作，SD现在是一种经过验证的工具，可以在急性和慢性护理环境中模拟卫生系统的复杂性，并且在这个项目中将扩展到MH&A。我期望从这项工作中得到两个关键贡献：1。扩展少量的学术文献，演示将SD作为在并购中创建通用模型的可行工具的使用。2.展示对并购行业复杂性建模的能力。我的期望是，该计划还需要战术和操作级模型，使用离散事件模拟和整数规划，以优化特定应用程序的策略级决策。我希望通过这笔资金资助一名博士生、一名博士后和两名硕士生。另外一名博士生也将在这个由政府机构资助的项目中工作。

My 2019-2024 research program focuses on developing operations research decision support models supporting policy makers and planners in the complex Mental Health and Addictions (MH&A) sector. Across Canada, MH&A services are delivered by a complex web of provincially funded public and private services. Demand is growing, particularly around dementia where demand is forecasted to grow 66% by 2031, and the relationship between supply and demand is poorly understood. Funding is limited and often allocated reactively, and without analysis as to whether that funding is contributing to improvements to service delivery in the sector. In addition, the healthcare sector operates in information silos with limited integration of services, and MH&A policies do not consider integration points with the broader health sector. My program's short-term research focus will be on capacity planning models for community based mental health services with a focus on dementia, including impacts on acute and chronic care capacity. The long-term focus will expand to include broader MH&A sector considerations. Over the past 20-30 years operations research has become entrenched in the acute care health care system and is growing in influence in the community and long-term care sectors. My past and present research programs have been key drivers in this change. The vision of this research program is to drive similar long-term development of capacity planning models in MH&A. I intend to use System Dynamics (SD) heavily within this research program for strategic policy level decision making. Through the work of myself and other colleagues, SD is now a proven tool for modeling health system complexities in acute and chronic care environments and in this program will be extended to MH&A. I am expecting two key contributions from this work: 1.Extending the small body of academic literature, demonstrating the use of SD as a viable tool for creating generic models in MH&A. 2.Demonstrating the ability to model the complexities of the MH&A sector. My expectation is that this program will also require tactical and operational level models, using Discrete Event Simulation and Integer Programming, to optimize policy level decisions for specific applications. I expect to fund one PhD student, and post-doctoral student, and two master level students through this grant. An additional PhD student will also be working within this program, funded by a government agency.