Ice-jam flood forecasting

这项为期五年的研究计划将使我在预测和评估冰塞洪水方面取得进展。在北部高纬度地区，冰川堵塞占河流洪水的40%以上。该倡导者在开发冰塞洪水预报和评估方法方面取得了一些进展。这些方法已被纳入加拿大各省政府运营的冰塞洪水预报系统。需要进行更多的研究，以改进和推广这些方法，其中包括：(I)在有关洪水风险区上游释放堵塞的影响，(Ii)开发冰塞住所位置的频率分布，(Iii)二维描述洪泛平原，以纳入冰川碎片造成的危险，以及(Iv)在冰堵洪水预报的背景下计算洪水风险。研究结果将改善我们对与冰有关的洪水的预测和描述，有助于减少洪水损失，并保护易发生重大冰川冲刷和堵塞事件的河流沿线的人类生命。虽然研究结果适用于所有拥有季节性冰盖的北部国家，但研究结果将特别适用于加拿大，那里的大多数重大洪水事件都与冰有关。预报冰冻洪水事件对于减少经济损失和减少对人类生活的影响是必要的。在这项研究计划中开发的工具将有助于改善和推进我们对导致严重冰堵洪水的过程的理解。北部河流沿线的许多社区经历了比公开水域洪水更严重的冰冻洪水。加拿大的许多社区目前正在重新起草或更新其洪水风险图和风险评估。大多数侧重于开放水域洪水，因为几乎没有指导将与冰有关的洪水危险和风险纳入总体洪水管理计划。这项研究将为冰堵洪水缓解措施和降低冰堵洪水风险提供额外的指导和基本的新见解。

This five-year research program will allow me to make advancements in the forecasting and assessment of ice-jam floods. Ice-jams account for over 40% of riverine floods in northern, high-latitude regions. The proponent has made some gains in the development of ice-jam flood forecasting and assessment methodologies. These methods have been incorporated in ice-jam flood forecasting systems operated by provincial governments in Canada. Additional research is required to make refinements and extensions to the methodologies including: (i) impact of the release of jams that have released upstream of the flood risk area of interest, (ii) developing frequency distributions of the location of ice-jam lodgments, (iii) two-dimensional description of the floodplain to incorporate hazard due to ice debris and (iv) calculating flood risk in an ice-jam flood forecasting context. The research findings will improve our predictions and delineations of ice-related flooding, to help in the reduction of flood damages and the protection of human life along rivers prone to major ice runs and jamming events. Although applicable to all northern countries that have seasonal ice covers, the research findings will be particularly applicable to Canada, where the majority of major flood events are ice-related. Forecasting ice-jam flood events is needed to reduce economic damage and reduce impacts to human life. The tools developed in this research program will help to improve and advance our understanding of the processes leading to severe ice-jam flooding. Many communities along northern rivers experience ice-jam floods, which are more severe than open-water floods. Many communities in Canada are currently drafting anew or updating their flood hazard mapping and risk assessments. Most focus on open-water flooding because little guidance is available to incorporate ice-related flood hazard and risk in the overall flood management plans. This research will provide additional guidance and contribute fundamental new insights for ice-jam flood mitigation measures and ice-jam flood risk reduction.