Decisions Under Uncertainty: Source Dependence

不确定性下的决策：来源依赖

• 批准号: 9110572
• 负责人: Richard Gonzalez
• 金额: $ 18.71万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-08-15 至 1995-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9110572&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Decisions; Under; Uncertainty; Source; Dependence

This project studies how individuals actually make decisions under uncertainty. Respondents will state cash equivalences for prospects defined over events. The project will then empirically validate recent axiomatic models of decision making which allow the separation of attitudes about consequences from attitudes about risk and uncertainty and which are defined over events that do not necessarily have a well-defined additive probability measure. The proposed research seeks to characterize risk attitudes as a function of the events(the weighting function) rather than the traditional view of characterizing risk attitudes as a function of the utility curve. Seven studies are proposed to understand people's attitudes about risk and uncertainty. The main focus of the studies will be to characterize properties of the weighting function and understand the relationship between the source of the uncertainty and the shape of the weighting function (i.e., source dependence.) Supplementing the empirical work will be a study of additional constraints, or axioms, needed to specify functional forms for the weighting function.

这个项目研究的是个人如何在 不确定性 受访者将说明现金等价物， 前景定义在事件上。 该项目将根据经验 验证最近的决策公理模型， 把对结果的态度和对 风险和不确定性，并定义在事件，不 必须有一个定义明确的附加概率测度。 的 拟议的研究旨在将风险态度描述为一种 事件的函数（加权函数），而不是 传统观点认为，风险态度的特征是 效用曲线 七项研究旨在了解 人们对风险和不确定性的态度。 的主要重点 这些研究将描述权重的特性， 功能和了解源之间的关系 不确定性和加权函数的形状（即，源 dependence.） 补充经验工作将是一个研究， 指定函数所需的附加约束或公理 权重函数的形式。