Improving Expert Elicitation Through Studies of Climate Change and Its Possible Impacts

全球气候变化及其影响的科学 不确定性。 公共政策决策需要近期 科学判断，因为科学事实不会 知道多年。 本研究对启发式教学进行了研究 全球生态环境背景下的专家判断 气候变化的影响。 本研究概括了启发式 方法，请专家组织问题，提出一个 模型，并给出了重要参数的判断， 他们的模型。 这种方法使专家们有更多的自由， 表达他们的意见相比，以前的工作，在专家的判断。 一 两阶段启发过程用于引出专家的 关于以下内容的看法：（1）结构、指标和价值 关键的不确定系数，应用于制定 问题;（2）关键发现在其领域的可靠性 在其工作所依赖的其他领域 （包括共识报告的可靠性）;（3） 敏感性和识别潜在来源的能力 （4）不确定性的减少量（ 在其专业领域和其他气候变化相关领域 问题），这些问题可以通过各种研究来实现 投资 这些启发将帮助我们定义 气候变化问题的不确定性特征 更好地，阐明知识的可靠性和 研究是衡量科学界，并提供 指导研究拨款。

The science of global climate change and its impacts is dominated by uncertainty. Public policy decisions require near term scientific judgments, since the scientific facts will not be known for years. This study conducts research on the elicitation of expert judgment in the context of the global ecological impacts of climate change. The study generalizes elicitation methods by asking experts to structure the issues, propose a model, and the give judgments about the important parameters of their model. This approach gives the experts more latitude to express their views compared to prior work in expert judgment. A two-stage elicitation process is used to elicit the expert's views about: (1) the structure, the metric(s), and the value of key uncertain coefficients that should be used in framing the problem; (2) the reliability of key findings in their field of expertise and in other fields upon which their work depends (including the reliability of consensus reports); (3) their sensitivity to and ability to identify the potential sources of surprise; and (4) the amount of reduction in uncertainty (in their field of expertise and in other climate change related issues) that could be achieved with various amounts of research investment. These elicitations will help us to define the character of uncertainties dominating climate change issues better, shed light on how the reliability of knowledge and research is gauged within the scientific community, and provide guidance on research allocations.