DMUU: Climate and Energy Decision Making

DMUU：气候和能源决策

• 批准号: 1463492
• 负责人: M Granger Morgan
• 金额: $ 450万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Cooperative Agreement
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-01 至 2023-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1463492&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DMUU; Climate; Energy; Decision; Making

This collaborative research group will develop tools to help decision makers address energy and other environmentally related decision problems; develop and demonstrate new theory and interdisciplinary methods; and conduct highly interdisciplinary research that merges behavioral and decision science with engineering and other technical analysis. To mitigate the negative consequences of environmental change, such as extreme events, the energy system will have to be fundamentally transformed from its current carbon-intensive form. The research will address challenges and potential solutions for a cost-effective transition of the energy system and the likely consequences of different pathways for the future of that system. This collaborative group is based at Carnegie Mellon University and includes researchers from eleven other institutions. The collaborative group will (1) publish results in leading scientific and engineering journals; (2) brief and otherwise assist a wide range of energy and environmentally-related decision makers; and (3) educate interdisciplinary PhD students. In addition, the investigators will use the final year of the project to prepare a book that summarizes results that have been obtained by this collaborative group.A first part of the proposed work will explore public understanding of air pollution and greenhouse gases. It also will explore public understanding of what is involved in making the transition to a future energy system composed of a broad portfolio of technologies and strategies. Research on public understanding and the development of strategies to improve fact-based communication will build upon "mental model" methods. A second part of the proposed work will involve the assessment of technologies and strategies that could: (1) facilitate or impede the transition of the energy system; (2) develop more sources of energy that are safe, clean, affordable, and secure; (3) increase the security and efficiency of the energy system; and (4) facilitate innovation in both technology and in organizations, regulation, and public policy. Strategies pursued in the short term in the name of transforming the energy system could be detrimental to longer-term progress (for example, shutting down clean nuclear power plants because, at the moment, natural gas is inexpensive, or developing an overreliance on natural gas). Activities undertaken in the third part of the proposed work will identify such potential problems and explore strategies to minimize the chances of getting stuck in future situations that block continued progress. Analysis of technical and regulatory issues associated with facilitating a more efficient and cost-effective transformation of the energy system will build upon a range of tools in engineering-economic and policy assessment. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) funding opportunity.

这个合作研究小组将开发工具，帮助决策者解决能源和其他环境相关的决策问题;开发和展示新的理论和跨学科方法;并进行高度跨学科的研究，将行为和决策科学与工程和其他技术分析相结合。 为了减轻极端事件等环境变化的负面影响，能源系统必须从根本上改变目前的碳密集型形式。 该研究将解决能源系统成本效益转型的挑战和潜在解决方案，以及该系统未来不同途径的可能后果。 这个合作小组总部设在卡内基梅隆大学，包括来自其他11个机构的研究人员。 该合作小组将（1）在领先的科学和工程期刊上发表成果;（2）向广泛的能源和环境相关决策者提供简报和其他协助;（3）教育跨学科博士生。 此外，研究人员将利用该项目的最后一年编写一本书，总结该合作小组取得的成果。拟议工作的第一部分将探讨公众对空气污染和温室气体的理解。 它还将探讨公众对过渡到由广泛的技术和战略组合组成的未来能源系统所涉及的内容的理解。 关于公众理解的研究和改进基于事实的沟通的战略的制定将建立在“心理模型”方法的基础上。 拟议工作的第二部分将涉及对技术和战略的评估，这些技术和战略可以：（1）促进或阻碍能源系统的转型;（2）开发更多安全、清洁、负担得起和安全的能源;（3）提高能源系统的安全性和效率;（4）促进技术和组织、监管和公共政策的创新。 以能源系统转型为名的短期战略可能不利于长期进展（例如，关闭清洁核电站，因为目前天然气价格低廉，或者过度依赖天然气）。 在拟议工作的第三部分开展的活动将查明这些潜在问题，并探讨各种战略，以尽量减少今后陷入阻碍继续取得进展的局面的可能性。 将利用工程经济和政策评估方面的一系列工具，分析与促进能源系统更有效和更具成本效益的转型有关的技术和管理问题。 该合作小组项目由NSF社会，行为和经济科学理事会通过其不确定性决策（DMUU）资助机会提供支持。