DMUU: Climate and Related Decision Making in the Face of Irreducible Uncertainties

DMUU：面对不可减少的不确定性的气候和相关决策

• 批准号: 0345798
• 负责人: M Granger Morgan
• 金额: $ 140万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Cooperative Agreement
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0345798&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DMUU; Climate; Related; Decision; Making

Discussions of climate-related decision making often assume, either implicitly or explicitly, that accurate predictive models can be developed of how the climate will change, what the ecological and socio-economic impacts of those changes will be, and what the relative costs and implications will be of alternative policies and strategies for adapting to those changes and to limit the emissions of greenhouse gasses. In reality, there are serious limitations on how accurately any of these things can be predicted. The Climate Decision Making Center will develop and demonstrate methods to characterize these irreducible uncertainties. It will focus in particular on uncertainties about climate and uncertainties about the future of the energy system because the energy sector is a leading source of emissions of greenhouse gasses. The center will work to create, illustrate, and evaluate decision strategies that incorporate such uncertainties. It also will develop methods to examine the broad social consequences, particularly for energy systems, of choices by individual and institutional decision makers. Recognizing that climate and climate policy often will play a small role in the considerations of many decision makers, the center's approach will be to treat climate in the broader context of the public policy, economic, and social environments in which decision makers operate. Center investigators have backgrounds in both the natural and the social sciences. The center is based in the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, but its work involves investigators at Stanford, UC Berkeley, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory-University of Maryland Joint Global Change Research Institute, the University of British Columbia, the University of Calgary, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).The Climate Decision Making Center will develop and demonstrate a set of new methods and decision analytic tools for addressing problems that involve high, and often irreducible levels of uncertainty. At the same time, because working on real problems is the best way to advance basic methods in a complex domain such as climate change, the center also will address specific problems faced by public and private sector decision makers. This applied work includes problems faced by: insurance managers with exposure to direct and indirect risks posed by climate change and by low carbon energy technologies; forest, fisheries, and ecosystem managers in the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada; Arctic-region decision makers concerned with balancing economic development and traditional indigenous life styles; and electric utility managers facing capital investment decisions about generation and multi-pollutant emissions control. The methods and approaches being developed and demonstrated by the Center will have general applicability to a wide range of other problems beyond the domain of climate change and energy technology. The doctoral students the center will educate will combine strong technical, social science, and decision-analytic skills that will prepare them to work on a wide variety of important societal problems. This award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).

关于与气候有关的决策的讨论往往含蓄或明确地假定，可以建立准确的预测模型，预测气候将如何变化，这些变化将产生什么样的生态和社会经济影响，以及适应这些变化和限制温室气体排放的替代政策和战略的相对成本和影响。 实际上，这些事情的预测准确性存在严重的局限性。 气候决策中心将开发和演示描述这些不可减少的不确定性的方法。 它将特别侧重于气候的不确定性和能源系统未来的不确定性，因为能源部门是温室气体排放的主要来源。 该中心将致力于创建，说明和评估决策策略，包括这些不确定性。 它还将制定方法，审查个人和机构决策者的选择所产生的广泛社会后果，特别是对能源系统的影响。 认识到气候和气候政策在许多决策者的考虑中往往会发挥很小的作用，该中心的方法将是在决策者运作的公共政策，经济和社会环境的更广泛背景下对待气候。 中心研究人员具有自然科学和社会科学的背景。 该中心设在卡内基梅隆大学工程与公共政策系，但其工作涉及斯坦福大学、加州大学伯克利分校、太平洋西北国立大学-马里兰州大学联合全球变化研究所、不列颠哥伦比亚省大学、卡尔加里大学、和波茨坦气候影响研究所（PIK）气候决策中心将开发和展示一套新的方法和决策分析工具，而且往往是不可减少的不确定性。 与此同时，由于解决真实的问题是在气候变化等复杂领域推进基本方法的最佳途径，该中心还将解决公共和私营部门决策者面临的具体问题。 这项应用工作包括面临的问题：保险经理与暴露于气候变化和低碳能源技术所带来的直接和间接风险;森林，渔业和生态系统管理人员在太平洋西北部和加拿大西部;北极地区的决策者关注平衡经济发展和传统的土著生活方式;以及电力公司管理者面临关于发电和多污染物排放控制的资本投资决策。 该中心正在开发和示范的方法和途径将普遍适用于气候变化和能源技术领域以外的广泛其他问题。 该中心将教育的博士生将结合联合收割机强大的技术，社会科学和决策分析技能，这将使他们准备在各种重要的社会问题的工作。 该奖项是作为2003财政年度人类和社会动力学优先领域不确定性决策特别竞赛的一部分获得支持的。