Continued Development of Methods for Characterizing and Ranking Health, Safety and Environmental Risks
持续开发健康、安全和环境风险的特征描述和排名方法
基本信息
- 批准号:9975200
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 19.07万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:1999
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:1999-09-01 至 2002-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Risk ranking has become a popular way for citizens to provide advice to environmental decision makers. If such advice is to reflect citizens' informed judgment, methods must be found to provide participants with both an adequate understanding of the underlying science, and with procedural assistance that helps them to address systematically the complexities of the problem. Under this grant, an interdisciplinary team is developing and demonstrating such methods.Risk ranking requires both risk analysis and value-based judgments. In the Carnegie Mellon method, experts create "risk summary sheets," which describe each hazard in clear simple language, and in multi-attribute terms. Then, representative groups of lay people, akin to citizen juries, rank the risks using two converging methods. The first is a "holistic" ranking procedure -- after examining the risk summary sheets, participants are guided through a structured procedure for making overall judgments of relative risk. The second method is a simplified "multi-attribute utility" (MAU) ranking procedure, in which participants assign relative weights to each of the risk attributes described in the summary sheets, allowing implicit ranks to be inferred. Groups then use their initial holistic ranking, and the results of the MAU procedure, in order deliberate and construct a final ranking. The procedure uses a combination of group and individual methods. The former attempt to exploit the multiple perspectives and mutual clarification possible with group interaction. The latter are designed to ensure that individuals continue to express (and reflect on) their personal views. Although the basic approach has been built upon theoretical and empirical results from behavioral social science, making it work in a realistic setting has required a substantial amount of experimentation. To that end, the CMU group has created an elaborate experimental testbed involving 22 health and safety risks in the fictional Centerville Middle School.The current grant is supporting refinement and evaluation of the method using the school test bed. It is also supporting the extension of the method beyond risks to human health and safety to include ecological and other environmental risks with the ultimate goal of developing ways to combine health, safety and environmental risks in a single ranking process.
风险排名已成为公民为环境决策者提供建议的流行方式。如果这样的建议是为了反映公民的知情判断,就必须找到方法,为参与者提供对基本科学的充分理解,并提供程序援助,帮助他们系统地解决问题的复杂性。根据这笔赠款,一个跨学科团队正在开发和演示这种方法。风险排名既需要风险分析,也需要基于价值的判断。在卡内基梅隆大学的方法中,专家们创建了“风险汇总表”,用清晰、简单的语言和多属性术语描述每种危险。然后,由非专业人士组成的具有代表性的团体,类似于公民陪审团,使用两种趋同的方法对风险进行排名。第一种是“整体”排名程序--在检查完风险汇总表后,参与者被引导通过一个结构化的程序,对相对风险做出总体判断。第二种方法是简化的“多属性效用”(MAU)排名程序,参与者为摘要表中描述的每个风险属性分配相对权重,从而可以推断隐含的排名。然后,小组使用他们的初始整体排名和MAU程序的结果,以便深思熟虑并构建最终排名。该程序结合使用了群体和个人方法。前者试图利用群体互动可能带来的多重视角和相互澄清。后者旨在确保个人继续表达(和反思)其个人观点。尽管基本方法建立在行为社会科学的理论和经验结果之上,但要使其在现实环境中发挥作用,还需要大量的实验。为此,CMU小组在虚构的Centerville中学创建了一个涉及22个健康和安全风险的精心设计的实验试验台。目前的拨款支持使用学校试验台改进和评估这一方法。它还支持将该方法从对人类健康和安全的风险扩展到包括生态和其他环境风险,最终目标是制定方法,将健康、安全和环境风险结合在一个单一的排名过程中。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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M Granger Morgan其他文献
Public attitudes towards electricity decarbonization and meeting 2035 goals
- DOI:
10.1016/j.energy.2024.133889 - 发表时间:
2024-12-30 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Sarah Troise;M Granger Morgan;Ahmed Abdulla - 通讯作者:
Ahmed Abdulla
M Granger Morgan的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('M Granger Morgan', 18)}}的其他基金
A Proposal for Annual Doctoral Student Participatory Workshops on Climate and Energy Decision Making
年度博士生参与气候与能源决策研讨会的提案
- 批准号:
2013896 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
DMUU: Climate and Energy Decision Making
DMUU:气候和能源决策
- 批准号:
1463492 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Cooperative Agreement
DMUU: Center on Climate Decision Making
DMUU:气候决策中心
- 批准号:
0949710 - 财政年份:2010
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Cooperative Agreement
DMUU: Climate and Related Decision Making in the Face of Irreducible Uncertainties
DMUU:面对不可减少的不确定性的气候和相关决策
- 批准号:
0345798 - 财政年份:2004
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Cooperative Agreement
The Use of Bounding Analysis in Risk Analysis
边界分析在风险分析中的应用
- 批准号:
0216897 - 财政年份:2002
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Development of Procedures for Characterizing and Ranking Environmental and Other Risks
制定环境和其他风险的特征描述和排名程序
- 批准号:
9512023 - 财政年份:1995
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Mathematical Sciences: Dealing with Mixed Levels of Uncertainty
数学科学:处理混合级别的不确定性
- 批准号:
9523602 - 财政年份:1995
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Improving Expert Elicitation Through Studies of Climate Change and Its Possible Impacts
通过气候变化及其可能影响的研究改进专家启发
- 批准号:
9209783 - 财政年份:1992
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Integrated Studies of Problems in Managing Research and Human Responses to Global Climate Change
研究管理问题和人类对全球气候变化的反应的综合研究
- 批准号:
9022738 - 财政年份:1991
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Research on Improving Risk Management Through Improving Theory and Practice in Risk Perception and Risk Communication
通过改进风险认知和风险沟通的理论和实践来提高风险管理的研究
- 批准号:
8715564 - 财政年份:1987
- 资助金额:
$ 19.07万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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