The Use of Bounding Analysis in Risk Analysis

边界分析在风险分析中的应用

• 批准号: 0216897
• 负责人: M Granger Morgan
• 金额: $ 11.05万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-09-01 至 2004-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0216897&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Use; Bounding; Analysis; Risk

The project will begin the development and demonstration of a new method to produce quantitative bounds on the risk that can be attributed to a set of environmental agents in circumstances in which conventional agent-by-agent "front-to-back" risk analysis produces results with extremely wide uncertainty bounds. The method will begin by summarizing available toxicological and epidemiological evidence on the end-point(s) in a form that facilitates easy comparisons. A constrained sum expert elicitation procedure will be developed which uses these data, together with expert judgment, to probabilistically attribute known and suspected causes of the health end-point to the observed cases. The result of this work should be a new set of methods which can be used by the risk analysis community in conjunction with more traditional risk analytic methods to bound the magnitude of possible health impacts from some types of environmental risks.

该项目将开始开发和演示一种新的方法，以便在传统的逐个试剂“从前到后”的风险分析产生具有极宽不确定范围的结果的情况下，对可归因于一组环境制剂的风险产生量化界限。该方法将首先以便于比较的形式总结关于终点(S)的现有毒理学和流行病学证据。将开发一种受限总和专家诱导程序，该程序使用这些数据以及专家判断，以概率方式将健康终点的已知和可疑原因归因于观察到的病例。这项工作的结果应该是一套新的方法，可供风险分析团体与更传统的风险分析方法一起使用，以确定某些类型的环境风险可能对健康造成的影响的大小。