The Use of Bounding Analysis in Risk Analysis

该项目将开始开发和演示一种新方法，以便在传统的逐物剂“前后”风险分析产生极宽不确定范围的结果的情况下，对可归因于一系列环境物剂的风险确定定量界限。 该方法开始时将以便于比较的形式总结有关终点的可用毒理学和流行病学证据。 将开发一个约束总和专家启发程序，该程序使用这些数据以及专家判断，以概率方式将健康终点的已知和疑似原因归因于观察到的病例。这项工作的结果应该是一套新的方法，可以使用的风险分析界结合更传统的风险分析方法，以限制某些类型的环境风险可能对健康的影响的程度。

The project will begin the development and demonstration of a new method to produce quantitative bounds on the risk that can be attributed to a set of environmental agents in circumstances in which conventional agent-by-agent "front-to-back" risk analysis produces results with extremely wide uncertainty bounds. The method will begin by summarizing available toxicological and epidemiological evidence on the end-point(s) in a form that facilitates easy comparisons. A constrained sum expert elicitation procedure will be developed which uses these data, together with expert judgment, to probabilistically attribute known and suspected causes of the health end-point to the observed cases. The result of this work should be a new set of methods which can be used by the risk analysis community in conjunction with more traditional risk analytic methods to bound the magnitude of possible health impacts from some types of environmental risks.