Industrial Productivity, Urban Growth, and Air Quality Regulation

该项目有三个相互关联的部分，统一的主题是受集聚经济、地理和法规影响的植物、工业和人口的位置和集聚模式的动态变化。另一个统一元素是所使用的数据。第一部分考察了环境监管对主要污染行业的影响，其中除了研究监管对地点和产业结构的影响外，重点关注不同地点、不同时间、不同工厂规模和年龄的工厂运营效率。在强有力的环境监管出现之前和之后，以及在受监管的未达标（“处理”）和较少或不受监管的达标（“控制”）区域之间，按年龄对工厂的资本密集度进行比较。估计准固定要素成本函数，从而计算资本的影子边际产品和有效经营规模。需要分析的问题包括环境诱导的投资在多大程度上对生产力作出贡献，以及在多大程度上和在多大程度上，在管制后和在未实现领域的工厂资本相对过剩和规模相对不足。提案的第二部分考察了高科技和传统产业的空间演变，以及当地静态和动态外部性对植物生产力的影响。采用平稳的一阶马尔可夫过程对城市间高科技就业分布的空间演化进行了建模。除了研究“趋同”问题外，目标是确定哪些城市场地特征定义了哪些行业的好场地。城市高科技的“奇迹”在多大程度上是可预测的？场地特征包括预定的城市人口和就业特征、外生地理特征和邻近城市特征。例如，如果基期都市区人口是一个关键特征，那么仍然存在为什么的问题。为了回答这个问题，我们将研究城市外部性，以确定它们是静态的还是动态的，以及它们是本地化的还是城市化的。第三部分是城市演变。该理论结合了地方规模经济和不经济的城市要素，在一个经济体中产生多个有限规模的城市，外生国家人口增长和内生经济增长，通过涉及局部知识溢出的人力资本投资。除了对城市发展进行建模之外，这个想法是研究城市间不断变化的收入不平等。在任何时候，不同的商品和城市类型通常会有不同的均衡人均人力资本水平和实际观察到的收入。此外，工人可能会根据能力水平对各个城市进行分类。一个关键的问题是局部知识溢出、父母教育、能力代际传递、城市生产模式和收入不平等之间的相互作用。实证部分考察了1900年至今美国的城市演变。这项研究使用了三个主要的数据集。首先是1963年至1994年的纵向研究数据库，用于研究工厂生产率、都市区工业环境和环境法规（也结合了人口普查局的污染减排成本和支出数据）。其次是1900年至1990年的县级数据集，涵盖了美国所有县的人口普查和工业特征，并结合了地理特征。最后是1977年至1995年的年度县商业模式数据，其中提供了所有私营就业的行业细节，并结合了关于政府就业和城市特征的普查数据。

This project has three interrelated parts, with a unifying theme being the dynamics of patterns of location and agglomeration of plants, industries, and populations as affected by agglomeration economies, geography, and regulation. Another unifying element is the data utilized. The first part examines the effects of environmental regulation on major polluting industries, where, apart from studying regulatory effects on location and industrial structure, a focus concerns plant operating efficiencies in different locations, over time, and by plant size and age. Capital intensities across plants are compared by age before and after the advent of strong environmental regulation and between regulated non attainment (`treatment`) and less or unregulated attainment (`control`) areas. Quasifixed factor cost functions are estimated so as to be able to calculate shadow marginal products of capital and efficient operating sizes. Issues to be analyzed include to what extent environmentally induced investments contribute to productivity and to what extent and at what cost plants after regulation and in non attainment areas are relatively overcapitalized and relatively under sized. The second part of the proposal examines the spatial evolution of high tech and traditional industries and the effects on plant productivity of local static and dynamic externalities. Spatial evolution of distributions of high tech employment across cities are modeled as a stationary first order Markov process. Apart from studying issues of `convergence,` the object is to determine what urban site characteristics define good sites for what industries. To what extent are urban high tech `miracles` predictable? Site characteristics include predetermined city population and employment characteristics, exogenous geographic characteristics, and characteristics of neighboring cities. If, for example, base period metro area population is a key characteristic, there remains a question of why. To answer this question, urban externalities will be examined to determine if they are static versus dynamic and if they are ones of localization versus urbanization. The third part focuses on urban evolution. The theory combines the urban elements of local scale economies versus diseconomies yielding multiple finite size cities in an economy, with exogenous national population growth and endogenous economic growth through human capital investment involving localized knowledge spillovers. Apart from modeling urban evolution, the idea is to study evolving income inequality across cities. At any instant, different goods and city types will generally have different equilibrium per person human capital levels and real observed incomes. Moreover workers may sort across cities by ability levels. A key issue concerns the interaction among localized knowledge spillovers, parental education, inter generational transmission of ability, urban production patterns and income inequality. The empirical part examines urban evolution in the USA from 1900 to the present. The research uses three major data sets. First is the Longitudinal Research Database from 1963 1994 to study plant productivity, metro area industrial environments, and environmental regulation (combined also with Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures data of the Census Bureau). Second is county level data set for 19001990 for all USA counties consistently defined over time, covering Census population and industrial characteristics and incorporating geographic characteristics. Finally there is annual County Business Patterns data for 1977 1995, giving industry detail on all private employment, combined with Census data on government employment and urban characteristics.