Economic Analysis of Data from Laboratory Experiments: Endogeniety, Attrition, Subject Heterogeniety, and Interdependencies

这一建议涉及经济学实验室实验数据的统计分析所涉及的一些问题。 经济学的实验工作对该领域越来越重要，但与现有的机会和提出的研究问题相比，对这些实验数据的统计分析仍然相对原始。 我们研究的目的是方法论和实质性的：方法论的意义在于展示现代统计（计量经济学）技术在实验者关注的数据分析问题中的应用，并将这些技术应用于实验室实验数据提出的特殊问题（和机会）。 实质性的，一些特定的问题已经在文献中的关注，所以这里提出的新的实验，以及相应的数据分析，应该提供新的见解手头的问题。建议就若干问题开展工作。 (1)在共同价值（或矿产权）拍卖实验中，有一个显着的自我选择效应，因为成为赢家诅咒牺牲品的投标人会赔钱，经常破产，并以很少的钱结束实验。 因此，他们倾向于自我选择，而不是返回到随后的实验会话中，这可能导致对更有经验的投标人的行为得出的结论存在重要偏见。 该计划既要衡量偏差，又要探索处理偏差的不同方法，包括统计学方法和实验设计方法。(2)在经济学实验中，一种常见的方法是在给定的实验阶段内提供具有回报的重复试验，以使受试者体验到所涉及的经济突发事件。 这导致受试者随着时间的推移从实验中积累收入，其影响通常被忽视，或者在研究时未能解释这些收入变化的内生性。 这反过来又会导致对拍卖结果的分析出现重大偏差。我们计划，以确定为什么代理人受到这种影响时，经济理论表明，他们不会，并扩展实验方法，研究的影响，收入对现金余额的影响，在矿产权拍卖实验。 (3)长期以来，经济学家一直怀疑，经济实验中的表现至少部分反映了实验室外受试者的经历以及他们的人口特征。 我们将通过收集相关的人口统计学和经验数据，借用在实地数据的统计分析中开发的方法，系统地研究这一点。 (4)在许多经济实验中，在给定的实验会话中，与一组受试者的重复观察相关联的个体受试者观察之间存在潜在的相互依赖性。我们计划在许多不同的环境中探索这个问题，并设计出处理它的方法。（5）在经济实验中，当统计评估行为时，研究人员通常假设所有或大部分响应系数在受试者之间是恒定的。 这在许多情况下可能是不正确的。 我们计划研究在这种情况下如何解释这种个体间的反应异质性。

This proposal addresses a number of issues involved in the statistical analysis of data from laboratory experiments in economics. Experimental work in economics is of growing importance to the field, but the statistical analysis of data from these experiments is still relatively primitive compared to the opportunities available and the research issues posed. The purpose of our investigations is both methodological and substantive: Methodological in the sense of demonstrating applications of modern statistical (econometric) techniques to data analysis issues of central concern to experimenters, and refining applications of these techniques to the special questions (and opportunities) that laboratory experimental data pose. Substantive in that a number of the particular issues addressed have been of concern in the literature, so that the new experiments proposed here, and the corresponding data analysis, should provide new insights into the issues at hand. Work is proposed on a number of issues. (1) In common value (or mineral rights) auction experiments there is a significant self-selection effect as bidders who fall prey to the winner's curse lose money, often go bankrupt, and end the experiment with very little money. As a consequence they tend to self-select out of returning for subsequent experimental sessions which can lead to important biases in the conclusions reached regarding the behavior of more experienced bidders. The plan is to both measure the bias and to explore different ways of dealing with it, both statistically and in terms of experimental design. (2) One common method in economic experiments is to provide repeated trials with payoffs within a given experimental session to provide subjects with experience with the economic contingencies involved. This leads to subjects accumulating earnings from the experiment over time whose effect is typically ignored, or when studied fails to account for the endogeneity of changes in these earnings. This in turn can lead to important biases in the analysis of auction outcomes. We plan to determine why agents are subject to such effects when economic theory suggests that they will not be, and to extend the experimental methodology developed to study the impact of earnings on cash balance effects in mineral rights auction experiments. (3) Economists have long suspected that performance in economic experiments reflects, at least in part, the experiences of subjects outside the lab as well as their demographic characteristics. We will study this systematically by collecting relevant demographic and experiential data on subjects borrowing methods developed in the statistical analysis of field data. (4) In many economic experiments there are potential interdependencies between individual subject observations associated with repeated observations of a group of subjects within a given experimental session. We plan to explore this issue in a number of different settings and to devise ways for dealing with it. (5) Often when statistically evaluating behavior in economic experiments investigators assume that all, or most, response coefficients are constant across subjects. This is likely to be incorrect in a number of cases. We plan to study ways of accounting for this response heterogeneity across individuals in such cases.