Egocentrism in Self vs. Other Comparisons: On the (Not so) Comparative Nature of Social Comparisons

人们往往是不切实际的乐观主义者。也就是说，平均而言，参与者估计他们比普通学生更有可能经历理想的事件，而比普通学生更不可能经历不理想的事件（Weinstein, 1980）。这种对未来的乐观态度可能会产生严重的后果。例如，每年都有成千上万的人死于与酒精有关的车祸，部分原因是他们低估了酒后驾车可能给自己带来麻烦的可能性。此外，人们经常冒险进行无保护的性行为，部分原因是他们低估了感染性传播疾病的可能性。虽然不切实际的乐观主义的后果很清楚，但原因却不清楚。由该奖项资助的三项研究将探讨人们对自己的未来抱有不切实际的乐观态度的原因，并揭示减少不切实际的乐观态度及其所产生的各种社会后果的方法。要测试的具体解释是，当人们将自己经历一件事的可能性与普通人进行比较时，他们关注的是自己感知到的经历一件事的可能性（我活到70岁的可能性有多大？），而没有充分考虑普通人经历这件事的可能性（普通人活到70岁的可能性有多大？）。当这种事件相对常见时，比如活到70岁以上，就会导致人们高估经历这种事件的相对可能性。相反，当事件相对不常见时，它会导致低估。在常见的理想事件和罕见的不理想事件的情况下，这转化为不切实际的乐观，但在常见的不理想事件和罕见的理想事件的情况下，这转化为不切实际的悲观。这表明，只要把人们的注意力吸引到普通人面临的风险上，就可以减少不切实际的乐观情绪——这正是有待检验的命题。此外，这项研究可能会挑战社会比较理论的一个最基本的假设（Festinger, 1954）。事实证明，有些社会比较既不是社会性的，也不是比较性的。

People tend to be unrealistically optimistc. That is, on average, participants estimate that they are more likely than the average student to experience the desirable events and less likely than the average student to experience the undesirable events (Weinstein, 1980). This optimism about the future can have severe consequences. For instance, each year thousands of individuals die in alcohol-related automobile accidents, in part because they underestimate the likelihood that driving drunk may get them into trouble. As well, people frequently risk unprotected sex in part because they underestimate their likelihood of contracting a sexually transmitted disease. While the consequences of unrealistic optimism are clear, the causes are not. The three studies funded by this award will explore the reasons why people are unrealistically optimistic about their futures and uncover ways in which unrealistic optimism-and the various societal consequences it engenders-can be reduced. The specific explanation that will be tested is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own perceived likelihood of experiencing an event (how likely am I to live past 70?) and insufficiently consider the chances of the average person experiencing the event (how likely is the average person to live past 70?). When the event is relatively common, like living past 70, this leads to an overestimation of one's comparative likelihood of experiencing the event. When the event is relatively uncommon, in contrast, it leads to an underestimation. This translates into unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events-but unrealistic pessimism in the case of common undesirable events and rare desirable events. This suggests that unrealistic optimism can be reduced by simply drawing people's attention to the risks facing the average person-precisely the proposition to be tested. Additionally, this research may challenge one of the most basic assumptions of social comparison theory (Festinger, 1954). Some social comparisons, it turns out, are neither social nor comparative.