Egocentrism in Self vs. Other Comparisons: On the (Not so) Comparative Nature of Social Comparisons

人们往往不切实际地乐观。 也就是说，平均而言，参与者估计他们比普通学生更有可能经历理想的事件，而比普通学生更不可能经历不理想的事件（Weinstein，1980）。 这种对未来的乐观可能会产生严重的后果。 例如，每年有成千上万的人死于与酒精有关的车祸，部分原因是他们低估了酒后驾车可能给他们带来麻烦的可能性。 同样，人们经常冒无保护措施的性行为的风险，部分原因是他们低估了感染性传播疾病的可能性。 虽然不切实际的乐观主义的后果是显而易见的，但其原因却不清楚。 该奖项资助的三项研究将探索人们对未来不切实际地乐观的原因，并揭示减少不切实际的乐观及其产生的各种社会后果的方法。 将被检验的具体解释是，当人们将他们经历一件事的可能性与普通人进行比较时，他们关注的是自己感知到的经历一件事的可能性（我活过70岁的可能性有多大？）并且没有充分考虑普通人经历这种事件的可能性（普通人活到70岁以上的可能性有多大？）。 当事件相对常见时，比如活到70岁以上，这会导致高估一个人经历事件的相对可能性。 相反，当事件相对罕见时，它会导致低估。 这就转化为对常见的理想事件和罕见的不理想事件的不切实际的乐观，但对常见的不理想事件和罕见的理想事件的不切实际的悲观。 这表明，不切实际的乐观主义可以通过简单地让人们注意到普通人面临的风险来减少，这正是有待检验的命题。 此外，这项研究可能会挑战社会比较理论（Festinger，1954）的最基本假设之一。 事实证明，一些社会比较既不是社会的，也不是比较的。

People tend to be unrealistically optimistc. That is, on average, participants estimate that they are more likely than the average student to experience the desirable events and less likely than the average student to experience the undesirable events (Weinstein, 1980). This optimism about the future can have severe consequences. For instance, each year thousands of individuals die in alcohol-related automobile accidents, in part because they underestimate the likelihood that driving drunk may get them into trouble. As well, people frequently risk unprotected sex in part because they underestimate their likelihood of contracting a sexually transmitted disease. While the consequences of unrealistic optimism are clear, the causes are not. The three studies funded by this award will explore the reasons why people are unrealistically optimistic about their futures and uncover ways in which unrealistic optimism-and the various societal consequences it engenders-can be reduced. The specific explanation that will be tested is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own perceived likelihood of experiencing an event (how likely am I to live past 70?) and insufficiently consider the chances of the average person experiencing the event (how likely is the average person to live past 70?). When the event is relatively common, like living past 70, this leads to an overestimation of one's comparative likelihood of experiencing the event. When the event is relatively uncommon, in contrast, it leads to an underestimation. This translates into unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events-but unrealistic pessimism in the case of common undesirable events and rare desirable events. This suggests that unrealistic optimism can be reduced by simply drawing people's attention to the risks facing the average person-precisely the proposition to be tested. Additionally, this research may challenge one of the most basic assumptions of social comparison theory (Festinger, 1954). Some social comparisons, it turns out, are neither social nor comparative.