Transmission Constrained Supply Function Equilibrium Analysis of Electric Power Markets

电力市场输电约束供给函数均衡分析

• 批准号: 0422914
• 负责人: Ross Baldick
• 金额: $ 12万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-01 至 2007-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0422914&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Transmission; Constrained; Supply; Function; Equilibrium

Restructuring has been both a nationwide and a worldwide trend in the electric power industry in the last 10 years. With years of experience accumulated, both successful and frustrating, markets have developed with common main bodies based on economic theory, empirical knowledge, and intuition. Moreover, power market designs are tending towards greater uniformity with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) carrying out a "Standard Market Design" (SMD) for electricity markets in North America. However, details still differ from market to market. The reason for these differences lies in the fact that there is no existing widely accepted method and tool to perform power market analysis and to provide convincing quantitative results. Theoretical properties of power markets remain relatively unclear, particularly in the presence of important engineering issues such as generation and transmission capacity constraints, operation issues such as price caps and non-decreasing supply functions, and sub-market interactions such as the interactions between the day-ahead market, real-time market, and bilateral contracts market. These issues have significant effects on the economic outcome, but are not well covered in classic economics, and not clearly understood by market participants and researchers. This project proposes to investigate the characteristics of typical power markets, focusing on the difficulties mentioned above, and develop an original method to perform quantitative power market analysis. We will consider the common design elements of the major power markets in the US, referring to them as a "typical market" compatible with FERC's SMD. By doing this, we can concentrate on the most important common features of power markets and develop results that are directly applicable or applicable with minor modifications to most power markets in United States. In this project, we will adopt the supply function equilibrium (SFE) approach as our research platform. SFE involves the closest modeling to power market reality among all the existing power market modeling methods, as compared for example to a Cournot model. All our research work will be embedded in the SFE model setting with asymmetric market participants and an extended time horizon. We will use the SFE platform to investigate the effects of transmission and generation capacity constraints, real-time market interaction, bilateral contracts, and price caps. To the best of the PI's knowledge, no previous work has addressed these topics together in a sophisticated SFE setting with asymmetric market participants and an extended time horizon. This project will involve theoretical work, development work, and application work. Theoretically, we hope to investigate the effects of the power market constraints, and provide valuable insights for the operation of power market. Specifically, we hope to bring forward and fulfill the novel idea of a "universal constraints handling framework" for SFE, which is capable of handling all kinds of constraints, and investigate market interaction issues with modeling of arbitrage. This part of the work is of great intellectual merit in both engineering science and economics, and will contribute to both of them. Another goal of this project is to devise a more sophisticated algorithm and software for power market analysis. This part of the work will serve as a good starting point for dispelling the ambiguities about the characteristics of power markets, facilitating a desirable power market standard design, and will assist market participants, researchers and regulators to obtain new insights. Lastly, we hope to apply the theoretical results and software to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market. This application is not only to test the effectiveness of our proposed method and software, but also to demonstrate how to apply our research results about a typical market to an actual large-scale market with its peculiarities. The proposed SFE analysis is valuable for ERCOT's ongoing market redesign process. By 2006, the current ERCOT market will change to a nodal day-ahead market. The insights from this study will be critical for the development of the new market design in ERCOT, and the results will consist of both analysis of the current ERCOT market and forecasts of the future ERCOT market. This work is not only of great value to the ERCOT market, but also of broad impact in the design and analysis of other markets. This research will involve significant interaction between the Principal Investigator and graduate students and prepare these students for careers that integrate ideas from several disciplines, including electric power engineering, economics, and finance. The project involves a mix of theoretical and numerical analysis and software development, and is expected to result in several publications, both in the electrical engineering and the regulatory economics literature. The results will be reported at conferences such as IEEE Power Engineering Society meetings. In addition, the PI intends to incorporate some of the basic ideas and results about the SFE into power system engineering courses, and bring the students to the latest theoretical developments in the electric power industry.

近10年来，电力行业重组已成为全国乃至世界范围内的趋势。经过多年的经验积累，无论是成功的还是令人沮丧的，市场已经发展成为基于经济理论、经验知识和直觉的共同主体。此外，随着联邦能源管理委员会（FERC）为北美电力市场实施“标准市场设计”（SMD），电力市场设计正趋于更加统一。然而，具体细节仍因市场而异。造成这些差异的原因在于，目前还没有广泛接受的方法和工具来进行电力市场分析并提供令人信服的定量结果。电力市场的理论属性仍然相对不清楚，特别是在存在重要的工程问题（例如发电和输电容量限制）、运营问题（例如价格上限和非递减供应函数）以及子市场相互作用（例如日前市场、实时市场和双边合同市场之间的相互作用）的情况下。这些问题对经济结果有重大影响，但经典经济学没有很好地涵盖，市场参与者和研究人员也没有清楚地理解。本项目拟针对上述困难，研究典型电力市场的特征，开发一种新颖的方法来进行电力市场定量分析。我们将考虑美国主要电力市场的共同设计元素，将其称为与 FERC 的 SMD 兼容的“典型市场”。通过这样做，我们可以专注于电力市场最重要的共同特征，并开发出直接适用或稍加修改即可适用于美国大多数电力市场的结果。 在这个项目中，我们将采用供给函数均衡（SFE）方法作为我们的研究平台。 SFE 涉及所有现有电力市场建模方法中最接近电力市场实际情况的建模，例如与古诺模型相比。我们所有的研究工作都将嵌入到具有不对称市场参与者和延长时间范围的SFE模型设置中。我们将利用 SFE 平台来研究输电和发电容量限制、实时市场互动、双边合同和价格上限的影响。据 PI 所知，之前的工作还没有在复杂的 SFE 环境中、市场参与者不对称、时间跨度较长的情况下同时解决这些主题。本项目将涉及理论工作、开发工作和应用工作。理论上，我们希望研究电力市场约束的影响，为电力市场的运行提供有价值的见解。 具体来说，我们希望为SFE提出并实现一个“通用约束处理框架”的新颖想法，该框架能够处理各种约束，并通过套利建模来研究市场交互问题。这部分工作在工程科学和经济学方面都具有巨大的智力价值，并将对两者做出贡献。该项目的另一个目标是设计更复杂的算法和软件用于电力市场分析。这部分工作将为消除电力市场特征的模糊性、促进理想的电力市场标准设计提供良好的起点，并将帮助市场参与者、研究人员和监管机构获得新的见解。 最后，我们希望将理论结果和软件应用到德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）市场。该应用不仅是为了测试我们提出的方法和软件的有效性，也是为了演示如何将我们对典型市场的研究成果应用到具有其特殊性的实际大规模市场中。拟议的 SFE 分析对于 ERCOT 正在进行的市场重新设计过程很有价值。到2006年，目前的ERCOT市场将转变为节点日前市场。这项研究的见解对于 ERCOT 新市场设计的开发至关重要，其结果将包括对当前 ERCOT 市场的分析和对未来 ERCOT 市场的预测。这项工作不仅对ERCOT市场具有巨大的价值，而且对其他市场的设计和分析也具有广泛的影响。这项研究将涉及首席研究员和研究生之间的重要互动，并帮助这些学生为融合电力工程、经济学和金融等多个学科思想的职业做好准备。 该项目涉及理论和数值分析以及软件开发，预计将在电气工程和监管经济学文献中发表多篇出版物。结果将在 IEEE 电力工程学会会议等会议上报告。此外，PI还打算将SFE的一些基本思想和成果融入到电力系统工程课程中，让学生了解电力行业的最新理论发展。