Empirical and Diagnostic Analysis of the Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the Precipitation of Central and North America

该项目将研究马登-朱利安振荡对中美洲和北美暖季降水的影响，将为理解这种关系开发一个动力学框架，并将初步评估马登-朱利安振荡可能在多大程度上提供美洲降水的可预测性。这个预报问题涵盖了天气和季节之间的时间尺度。将进行三组分析：对Madden Julian振荡在其生命周期过程中的经验分析；对动力学和热力学的诊断分析；以及根据其相位传播评估潜在的可预测性。根据马登-朱利安振荡对两周及以上区域降水量的可预测性预计将对中美洲和北美产生经济和社会影响。范围从洪水和火灾风险到空气质量。

This project will examine the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the warm-season precipitation of Central and North America, will develop a dynamical framework for understanding this relationship, and will make a preliminary assessment of the degree to which the Madden Julian Oscillation may provide predictability to precipitation over the Americas. This forecasting problem covers the time-scales between synoptic and seasonal. Three sets of analyses will be conducted: empirical analysis of the Madden Julian Oscillation during the course of its life cycle; diagnostic analysis of dynamics and thermodynamics; and an assessment of the potential predictability based on its phase propagation. Predictability of regional precipitation at and beyond two weeks based on the Madden-Julian-Oscillation is expected to result in economically and societally relevant impacts for Central and North America. This ranges from flood and fire risks to air quality.