Empirical and Diagnostic Analysis of the Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the Precipitation of Central and North America

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This project will examine the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the warm-season precipitation of Central and North America, will develop a dynamical framework for understanding this relationship, and will make a preliminary assessment of the degree to which the Madden Julian Oscillation may provide predictability to precipitation over the Americas. This forecasting problem covers the time-scales between synoptic and seasonal. Three sets of analyses will be conducted: empirical analysis of the Madden Julian Oscillation during the course of its life cycle; diagnostic analysis of dynamics and thermodynamics; and an assessment of the potential predictability based on its phase propagation. Predictability of regional precipitation at and beyond two weeks based on the Madden-Julian-Oscillation is expected to result in economically and societally relevant impacts for Central and North America. This ranges from flood and fire risks to air quality.