An investigation into the stochastic physics of iceberg calving and universal calving laws

鉴于冰川动力学对冰川锋位置的敏感性，如果没有对产犊进行参数化，以确定冰川锋的位置，这可以实施到大陆尺度的冰盖模型中，我们准确预测冰盖海平面变化以应对气候变化的能力将受到严重影响。 然而，尽管冰山产犊在格陵兰和南极洲观测到的变化中发挥了重要作用，但冰川学界仍然没有一个冰山产犊的参数化，可以解释观测到的产犊行为的多样性。 必须克服的挑战是，参数化的产犊必须不仅能够解释各种各样的观察到的行为，它也必须足够简单，它可以被纳入大陆规模的冰盖模型，而不会引入一个禁止计算税的模型和建模。 提供资金，以制定一个参数化的产犊，（一）可以适用于接地和浮动冰川终端和（二）可以实施到区域和/或大陆规模的冰盖架模型。 主要目标不是预测特定出口冰川的具体行为，而是从更广泛的角度来解决问题，并试图了解冰舌，出口和冰川作为一个群体的行为和稳定性的定性包络。使用从无序材料断裂的物理力学理论中借用的技术，将产犊定律表述为一个随机过程。新推导出的产犊法将被纳入流线冰盖架模型，以模拟一系列不同的环境条件，基础地形和滑动规律。该建议的核心是确定产犊定律在整个参数空间范围内预测的行为。

Given the sensitivity of glacier dynamics to the position of the glacier front, without a parameterization of calving, to determine the position of the glacier front, which can be implemented into continental scale ice sheet models, our ability to accurately forecast changes in sea level from the ice sheets in response to climate change will be seriously compromised. However, despite the important role iceberg calving plays in contributing to observed changes in Greenland and Antarctica, the glaciology community still does not have a parameterization of iceberg calving that can explain the diversity of observed calving behavior. The challenge that must be overcome is that the parameterization of calving must not only be capable of explaining the wide variety of observed behaviors, it must also be sufficiently simple that it can be incorporated into continental-scale ice sheet models without introducing a prohibitive computational tax on the models and modelers. Funds are provided to develop a parameterization of calving that (i) can be applied to grounded and floating glacier termini and (ii) can be implemented into regional and/or continental scale ice-sheet-shelf models. The primary goal is not to predict the specific behavior of a particular outlet glacier, but instead to attack the problem from a broader perspective and try to understand the qualitative envelope of behavior and stability of ice tongues, outlet and tidewater glaciers as a group. The calving law will be formulated as a stochastic process using techniques borrowed from the statistical-mechanical theory of fracture of disordered material. The newly derived calving law will be incorporated into a flowline ice-sheet-shelf model to simulate a range of different environmental conditions, basal topographies, and sliding laws. The core of this proposal focuses on determining the behavior predicted by the calving law throughout the entire range of parameter space.