High Resolution Earth System Modeling for International Climate Assessment Using Blue Waters Capabilities

该项目将使用最先进的计算资源，即Blue Waters，和尖端的建模软件，以推动对气候变化及其对我们星球的潜在影响的研究。预计我们的研究结果将成为政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)下一次重大国际气候评估和下一次美国国家气候评估中对气候变化的科学分析不可或缺的一部分。这些评估是对国家和国际政策制定进程的重要投入。这些分析将是对协调的国际特别计算研究和模型相互比较的重大贡献，以分析过去和预测的地球-S气候系统的未来变化。此外，这些研究的结果将完全提供给科学界，以供进一步分析和深入了解气候多变性和气候变化的过程、机制和后果。最重要的是，这些研究将是对气候变化对许多不同部门(例如，健康、食品、水、能源、交通)和生态系统的潜在影响的研究的重要投入。以前没有一项全球模拟研究在区域范围内提供了充分分析这些问题所需时间的如此高分辨率的信息。模拟和分析是为了使用Blue Waters的千万亿级计算资源而设计的，如果没有像Blue Water这样的计算设施，就无法完成。第一个是为了更好地量化未来的区域气候变化，在CMIP6(耦合模式比较项目，第6阶段)框架内运行一个高分辨率(0.25度大气，1度海洋)全球耦合气候模式，即共同体地球系统模式的高级版本，以满足下一代气候变化评估的需要。CMIP6将是专门计算研究的国际协调的下一阶段，以分析过去和预测的地球-S气候系统的未来变化。世界上最好的地球模型之一？S？S气候系统模型是由国家大气研究中心与大学和国家实验室的科学家社区合作开发的。第二个目的将是在我们现有的NSF PRAC项目的基础上发展起来的具体研究，通过对蓝色水域进行更高分辨率的CESM建模研究，进一步澄清小尺度区域特征和跨空间尺度的气候相互作用的影响，这将推动此类分析的最先进水平。为了这个项目，我们从伊利诺伊大学和国家大气研究中心组建了一个团队，由全球气候建模和分析领域的知名专家以及计算机科学和信息技术专家组成。该团队已经在基于现有PRAC项目的Blue Waters(以及其他高性能计算机)方面拥有丰富的经验。

This project will use state-of-the-art computational resources, namely Blue Waters, and cutting-edge modeling software in advancing the study of climate change and its potential impacts on our planet over this century. It is expected that results from our studies will be an integral part of the scientific analysis of climate change for the next major international climate assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the next U.S. National Climate Assessment. These assessments are an important input to the national and international policy development process. These analyses will be a significant contribution to the coordinated international special computational studies and model intercomparison to analyze past and projected future changes in the Earth?s climate system. In addition, the results of these studies will be fully available to the scientific community for further analyses and resulting insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequences of climate variability and climate change. On top of this, these studies will be a major input to studies of the potential impacts of climate change on human society across many different sectors (e.g., health, food, water, energy, transportation) and on ecosystems. No previous global modeling study has provided such high resolution information at the regional scales over the time periods needed to fully analyze these issues. The simulations and analyses are designed to use the Blue Waters petascale computing resources and could not be completed without a computational facility like Blue Waters.This project has two purposes. The first is aimed at better quantifying future regional climate change by running a high-resolution (0.25 degree atmosphere, 1 degree ocean) global coupled climate model, namely an advanced version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in the framework of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6) to meet the needs for the next generation assessments of climate change. CMIP6 will be the next phase in the international coordination of special computational studies to analyze the past and projected future changes in the Earth?s climate system. CESM, one of the world?s best models of the Earth?s climate system, has been developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in coordination with a community of scientists at universities and national laboratories. The second purpose will be specific studies that grow upon our existing NSF PRAC project to further clarify the understanding the effects of small-scale regional features and interactions across spatial scales in climate through even higher-resolution CESM modeling studies on Blue Waters that will push the state-of-the-art for such analyses. For this project, we have assembled a team from the University of Illinois and the National Center for Atmospheric Research comprised of both highly recognized experts in global climate modeling and analysis and experts in computer science and information technology. This team already has extensive experience with Blue Waters (as well as with other high performance computers) based on the existing PRAC project.