High Resolution Earth System Modeling for International Climate Assessment Using Blue Waters Capabilities

该项目将使用最先进的计算资源，即Blue Waters和尖端的建模软件，推进本世纪气候变化及其对地球的潜在影响的研究。预计我们的研究结果将成为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）下一次主要国际气候评估和下一次美国国家气候评估的气候变化科学分析的组成部分。这些评估是对国家和国际政策制定进程的重要投入。这些分析将对协调的国际特别计算研究和模型相互比较作出重大贡献，以分析过去和预测未来地球的变化。美国气候系统。此外，这些研究的结果将充分提供给科学界进行进一步分析，并由此深入了解气候变率和气候变化的过程、机制和后果。除此之外，这些研究将成为研究气候变化对人类社会在许多不同部门（如卫生、食品、水、能源、交通）和生态系统的潜在影响的重要投入。以前没有一项全球模式研究能够在区域尺度上提供充分分析这些问题所需的高分辨率信息。模拟和分析是为使用Blue Waters的千万亿级计算资源而设计的，没有Blue Waters这样的计算设施是无法完成的。这个项目有两个目的。第一个目标是通过在CMIP6（耦合模式比对项目，第6阶段）框架下运行高分辨率（0.25度大气，1度海洋）全球耦合气候模式，即社区地球系统模式（CESM）的高级版本，更好地量化未来区域气候变化，以满足下一代气候变化评估的需要。CMIP6将是国际协调特别计算研究的下一个阶段，以分析地球过去和预测未来的变化？美国气候系统。CESM，一个世界？什么是最好的地球模型？该系统是由美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）与大学和国家实验室的一群科学家合作开发的。第二个目的将是在我们现有的NSF PRAC项目的基础上进行具体的研究，通过对蓝水进行更高分辨率的CESM建模研究，进一步阐明对气候中小尺度区域特征和跨空间尺度相互作用的影响的理解，这将推动此类分析的最新发展。为了这个项目，我们召集了一个来自伊利诺伊大学和国家大气研究中心的团队，其中既有全球气候建模和分析方面的知名专家，也有计算机科学和信息技术方面的专家。这个团队已经在基于现有PRAC项目的Blue Waters（以及其他高性能计算机）方面拥有丰富的经验。

This project will use state-of-the-art computational resources, namely Blue Waters, and cutting-edge modeling software in advancing the study of climate change and its potential impacts on our planet over this century. It is expected that results from our studies will be an integral part of the scientific analysis of climate change for the next major international climate assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the next U.S. National Climate Assessment. These assessments are an important input to the national and international policy development process. These analyses will be a significant contribution to the coordinated international special computational studies and model intercomparison to analyze past and projected future changes in the Earth?s climate system. In addition, the results of these studies will be fully available to the scientific community for further analyses and resulting insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequences of climate variability and climate change. On top of this, these studies will be a major input to studies of the potential impacts of climate change on human society across many different sectors (e.g., health, food, water, energy, transportation) and on ecosystems. No previous global modeling study has provided such high resolution information at the regional scales over the time periods needed to fully analyze these issues. The simulations and analyses are designed to use the Blue Waters petascale computing resources and could not be completed without a computational facility like Blue Waters.This project has two purposes. The first is aimed at better quantifying future regional climate change by running a high-resolution (0.25 degree atmosphere, 1 degree ocean) global coupled climate model, namely an advanced version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in the framework of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6) to meet the needs for the next generation assessments of climate change. CMIP6 will be the next phase in the international coordination of special computational studies to analyze the past and projected future changes in the Earth?s climate system. CESM, one of the world?s best models of the Earth?s climate system, has been developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in coordination with a community of scientists at universities and national laboratories. The second purpose will be specific studies that grow upon our existing NSF PRAC project to further clarify the understanding the effects of small-scale regional features and interactions across spatial scales in climate through even higher-resolution CESM modeling studies on Blue Waters that will push the state-of-the-art for such analyses. For this project, we have assembled a team from the University of Illinois and the National Center for Atmospheric Research comprised of both highly recognized experts in global climate modeling and analysis and experts in computer science and information technology. This team already has extensive experience with Blue Waters (as well as with other high performance computers) based on the existing PRAC project.