PIRE: Taming Water in Ethiopia: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Improve Human Security in a Water-Dependent Emerging Region

PIRE：埃塞俄比亚治水：改善依赖水的新兴地区人类安全的跨学科方法

• 批准号: 1545874
• 负责人: Emmanouil Anagnostou
• 金额: $ 427.49万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-04-01 至 2024-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1545874&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PIRE; Taming; Water; Ethiopia; Interdisciplinary

This project has the potential to significantly improve the efficacy of water forecasting, a crucial need as water availability becomes increasingly inconsistent due to growing urbanization, the impacts of climate variability and other factors. The project studies the intersection of human, climate, water, agriculture, and energy systems in the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) of Ethiopia. The main objective of the project is to study and improve decision making under uncertainty. The project interweaves social science, geosciences and engineering research to create new models for water forecasting, then uses these models to understand the political-institutional constraints that affect how communities and decision-makers consider and use scientific information. Since decision-makers globally are faced with the challenge of using data and models that are never completely certain, an understanding of how political-institutional constraints impact use of scientific data will have global ramifications. Performing this research in Ethiopia is especially valuable since Ethiopia's inter-annual variability in local precipitation is one of the highest globally and Ethiopia's socio-political challenges in water management are mirrored in many other developing countries. Therefore, improved water modeling methods developed for the BNB have the potential to be valuable globally, and improved understanding of the political and institutional impacts on water management in the BNB can be applied to other environments with a potentially transformational impact around the globe. This project will develop hydro-climatic forecasts from data-enhanced models and incorporate social science data that will improve the predictability of sub-basin hydro-agricultural and water management processes in the BNB. A three-stage longitudinal design captures the changing links between new scientific information, political-institutional dynamics, and water, agricultural and energy activities. The project uses a comparative design method to harness and understand variation in both human and natural systems, investigating iteratively how each aspect of the coupled system influences human security in vulnerable hydro-climatic environments. The research proposed provides a novel mechanism to test the traditional understanding of "pure" science against a political-institutional model that acknowledges the role of social factors in the use of scientific information. The research will provide a better understanding of how people respond to scientific uncertainty with implications well beyond Ethiopia and the Blue Nile Basin. The project will integrate research, education and outreach, bringing people and resources together across disciplinary, cultural and geographical boundaries. Key likely benefits include: developing a practical roadmap for developing and using water forecasting in low income communities; training a new cadre of US students capable of interdisciplinary and international work on water and human security, and providing e-learning and outreach that will carry this training beyond the students participating in this project; and global public outreach to share the results of this project with scientists as well as many other stakeholders interested in understanding and managing water resources. The research effort aligns with NSF's emerging focus on food, energy, and water systems, and the results of this project are likely to benefit future efforts to understand the food, energy, and water nexus.This award is co-funded by the Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences' Office of Multidisciplinary Activities.

该项目有可能显著提高水资源预测的效率，这是由于城市化、气候变率和其他因素的影响，水资源供应日益不稳定的一项至关重要的需求。该项目研究埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河流域（BNB）人类、气候、水、农业和能源系统的交集。该项目的主要目标是研究和改进不确定条件下的决策。该项目将社会科学、地球科学和工程研究相结合，为水资源预测创建新的模型，然后利用这些模型来理解影响社区和决策者如何考虑和使用科学信息的政治制度约束。由于全球决策者面临着使用从未完全确定的数据和模型的挑战，因此了解政治制度约束如何影响科学数据的使用将具有全球影响。在埃塞俄比亚进行这项研究特别有价值，因为埃塞俄比亚当地降水的年际变化是全球最高的之一，埃塞俄比亚在水管理方面的社会政治挑战在许多其他发展中国家都有反映。因此，为BNB开发的改进的水建模方法具有潜在的全球价值，并且可以将对BNB水管理的政治和制度影响的更好理解应用于其他环境，从而对全球产生潜在的变革性影响。该项目将根据数据增强的模型开发水文气候预报，并纳入社会科学数据，从而提高BNB分流域水文农业和水管理过程的可预测性。三阶段纵向设计捕捉了新科学信息、政治制度动态以及水、农业和能源活动之间不断变化的联系。该项目使用比较设计方法来利用和理解人类和自然系统的变化，迭代地研究耦合系统的每个方面如何影响脆弱的水文气候环境中的人类安全。提出的研究提供了一种新的机制来检验对“纯”科学的传统理解与承认社会因素在科学信息使用中的作用的政治制度模型。这项研究将更好地理解人们如何对科学的不确定性作出反应，其影响远远超出埃塞俄比亚和青尼罗河盆地。该项目将整合研究、教育和推广，将跨越学科、文化和地理界限的人员和资源聚集在一起。可能的主要好处包括：为低收入社区开发和使用水资源预测制定切实可行的路线图；培训一批有能力从事水与人类安全领域跨学科和国际工作的新美国学生骨干，并提供电子学习和外联服务，将这种培训推广到参与该项目的学生之外；以及全球公众推广，与科学家以及许多其他对理解和管理水资源感兴趣的利益相关者分享这个项目的成果。这项研究工作与美国国家科学基金会对食物、能源和水系统的新兴关注相一致，该项目的结果可能有利于未来了解食物、能源和水关系的努力。该奖项由社会、行为和经济科学理事会多学科活动办公室共同资助。