Doctoral Dissertation Research: Responses to Islamist Political Violence and the Moderates' Dilemma

本研究项目调查温和派穆斯林如何应对以其宗教名义实施的暴力行为。打着激进逊尼派伊斯兰主义旗号行事的跨国运动和当地运动都处于国内和国际安全关切的前沿。尽管如此，人们对温和派穆斯林如何以及何时以他们共同的宗教信仰的名义犯下的极端主义暴力事件的反应知之甚少。特别是，这项研究试图了解温和派穆斯林动员起来反对这种暴力的情况。研究人员特别感兴趣的是找出政治和经济障碍，这些障碍使团体难以协调一致地反对这些暴力团体的行动。特别是，调查者推测，关于对暴力的支持的看法的不确定性实际上导致团体成员高估了对这些暴力团体的支持。因此，个人预计分享反暴力观点会带来巨大的声誉成本，因此他们经常避免公开分享自己的观点。暴力团体的反对者不顾他们的信仰而集体发声的这种失败导致了作者所说的“温和派困境”。通过对“温和派困境”的更多了解，这项研究的结果有可能为在全球范围内打击暴力极端主义政策的战略提供有价值的见解。技术总结过去20年来，伊斯兰世界极端主义运动的重要性显著增加。民意调查显示，在穆斯林占多数的国家，70%-95%的穆斯林认为暴力从来没有或很少是正当的，但对暴力团体的反应和政治动员存在很大差异。该项目利用多方法研究设计，包括原始调查实验、推特数据、两次调查期间参与者行为的观察数据，以及在印度尼西亚(世界上最大的穆斯林占多数的国家)的田野调查，以制定一个解释温和派穆斯林公开反对穆斯林暴力派别的意愿的差异。特别是，作者认为，尽管温和派穆斯林代表着多数人，但他们面临着协调困境，极端分子愿意公开羞辱那些认为自己是温和派穆斯林的人，这加剧了这一困境。当面临潜在的声誉成本时，温和派会伪造或自我审查反对暴力团体的态度。这就导致了被称为“温和派困境”的协调问题。这些影响因个人对声誉成本的敏感度和对他人态度的不确定程度而异。

General SummaryThis research projects investigates how do moderate Muslims respond to violence perpetrated in their religion's name. Both transnational and local movements acting in the name of radical Sunni Islamism are at the forefront of domestic and international security concerns. That said, relatively little is known about how and when moderate Muslims react to extremist violent events perpetrated in the name of their shared religious faith. In particular, the research seeks to understand the circumstances under which moderate Muslims mobilize against such violence. The researcher is particularly interested in identifying the political and economic obstacles that make it difficult for groups to express coordinated opposition to the actions of these violent groups. In particular, the investigator theorizes that uncertainty regarding the perceptions support for violence actually leads group members to overestimate support for these violent groups. As a consequence, individuals anticipate significant reputation costs for sharing anti-violent views, therefor they often refrain from sharing their views publicly. This failure on the part of opponents to violent groups to speak out collectively despite their beliefs leads to what the author calls "the Moderates' Dilemma." By learning more about the "Moderates' Dilemma," the results of this study have the potential to provide valuable insight into strategies for countering violent extremism policies globally.Technical SummaryThe past two decades have seen a significant increase in the salience of extremist movements in the Islamic World. Polls indicate that 70%-95% of Muslims in Muslim-majority countries believe that violence is never or only rarely justified, yet there is significant variation in the responses and political mobilization against violent groups. This project utilizes a multi-method research design comprised of an original survey experiment, twitter data, observational data of participant behavior during two surveys, and fieldwork in Indonesia (the world's largest Muslim-majority country) to develop an explanation for variation in moderates Muslims' willingness to speak out against violent factions of Muslims. In particular, the author argues that despite representing the majority, moderate Muslims face a coordination dilemma that is exacerbated by the extremists' willingness to publicly shame those who identify as moderate Muslims. When faced with the potential reputation costs, moderates will falsify or self-censor attitudes opposing violent groups. This leads to the coordination problem referred to as "the Moderates' Dilemma." These effects vary by individuals' sensitivity to reputation costs and degree of uncertainty regarding others' attitudes.