Doctoral Dissertation Research: Responses to Islamist Political Violence and the Moderates' Dilemma

本研究项目调查温和的穆斯林如何应对以其宗教名义实施的暴力行为。以激进的逊尼派伊斯兰主义为名的跨国和本地运动，都是国内和国际安全关切的焦点。也就是说，对于温和的穆斯林如何以及何时对以他们共同宗教信仰的名义犯下的极端主义暴力事件作出反应，人们知之甚少。特别是，该研究试图了解温和的穆斯林动员起来反对这种暴力的情况。研究人员特别感兴趣的是确定政治和经济障碍，这些障碍使团体难以对这些暴力团体的行动表示协调一致的反对。特别是，研究者的理论认为，对暴力支持的认知的不确定性实际上导致群体成员高估了对这些暴力群体的支持。因此，个人预期分享反暴力观点会带来巨大的声誉损失，因此他们通常不愿公开分享自己的观点。反对暴力团体的人尽管信仰不同，却未能集体发声，这导致了作者所说的“温和派的困境”。通过更多地了解“温和派困境”，本研究的结果有可能为全球打击暴力极端主义政策的战略提供有价值的见解。在过去的二十年里，伊斯兰世界的极端主义运动显著增加。民意调查显示，在穆斯林占多数的国家，70%-95%的穆斯林认为暴力从来没有或很少是正当的，然而，在回应和反对暴力团体的政治动员方面存在显著差异。本项目采用多方法研究设计，包括原始调查实验、twitter数据、两次调查中参与者行为的观察数据，以及在印度尼西亚（世界上最大的穆斯林占多数的国家）的实地调查，以解释温和派穆斯林公开反对穆斯林暴力派别的意愿差异。特别是，作者认为，尽管代表了大多数人，温和的穆斯林面临着协调困境，而极端分子愿意公开羞辱那些认为自己是温和穆斯林的人，这加剧了这种困境。当面对潜在的声誉损失时，温和派会伪造或自我审查反对暴力团体的态度。这就导致了被称为“温和派困境”的协调问题。这些影响因个人对声誉成本的敏感度和对他人态度的不确定程度而异。

General SummaryThis research projects investigates how do moderate Muslims respond to violence perpetrated in their religion's name. Both transnational and local movements acting in the name of radical Sunni Islamism are at the forefront of domestic and international security concerns. That said, relatively little is known about how and when moderate Muslims react to extremist violent events perpetrated in the name of their shared religious faith. In particular, the research seeks to understand the circumstances under which moderate Muslims mobilize against such violence. The researcher is particularly interested in identifying the political and economic obstacles that make it difficult for groups to express coordinated opposition to the actions of these violent groups. In particular, the investigator theorizes that uncertainty regarding the perceptions support for violence actually leads group members to overestimate support for these violent groups. As a consequence, individuals anticipate significant reputation costs for sharing anti-violent views, therefor they often refrain from sharing their views publicly. This failure on the part of opponents to violent groups to speak out collectively despite their beliefs leads to what the author calls "the Moderates' Dilemma." By learning more about the "Moderates' Dilemma," the results of this study have the potential to provide valuable insight into strategies for countering violent extremism policies globally.Technical SummaryThe past two decades have seen a significant increase in the salience of extremist movements in the Islamic World. Polls indicate that 70%-95% of Muslims in Muslim-majority countries believe that violence is never or only rarely justified, yet there is significant variation in the responses and political mobilization against violent groups. This project utilizes a multi-method research design comprised of an original survey experiment, twitter data, observational data of participant behavior during two surveys, and fieldwork in Indonesia (the world's largest Muslim-majority country) to develop an explanation for variation in moderates Muslims' willingness to speak out against violent factions of Muslims. In particular, the author argues that despite representing the majority, moderate Muslims face a coordination dilemma that is exacerbated by the extremists' willingness to publicly shame those who identify as moderate Muslims. When faced with the potential reputation costs, moderates will falsify or self-censor attitudes opposing violent groups. This leads to the coordination problem referred to as "the Moderates' Dilemma." These effects vary by individuals' sensitivity to reputation costs and degree of uncertainty regarding others' attitudes.