The Divergent Effects of Conflict on Ethnic Voting

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This project asks what determines whether salient ethnic divisions from conflict continue to be the source of political mobilization in post-conflict elections. The PIs identify an empirical puzzle that suggests that even an ethnic group heavily affected by conflict may choose representation through a national rather than an ethnic party. The key to the puzzle lies in the different experiences of conflict that bred different rebel-civilian relationships. The PIs theorize that the experience of 'in-group betrayal' (siding with state counterinsurgency rather than ethnic rebels) during ethnic war can undermine the perceived legitimacy of ethno-national political movement and thereby disincentivize ethnic mobilization in post-conflict elections. While political scientists have linked elections in post-conflict environments as arenas for renewed violence, little is known about how wartime identity politics might have influenced these outcomes. This project connects ethnic politics literature with conflict literature by drawing attention to how the rebel-civilian relationship affects post-conflict electoral politics. The PIs propose that experience of harm inflicted by in-group rebel leaders affect the likelihood of ethnic political mobilization among conflict-affected groups. Methodologically, the PIs use a survey experiment procedure to assess the validity of the causal mechanism of 'in-group betrayal' in a highly sensitive political environment. Identifying the source of cross-ethnic political mobilization after a violent conflict has important implications for post-war reconstruction. In line with the U.S. efforts for peaceful transition of war-torn states, this project contributes to making better peace-building strategies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.