The Divergent Effects of Conflict on Ethnic Voting

本项目探讨是什么因素决定了冲突造成的突出种族分裂是否继续成为冲突后选举中政治动员的根源。法律正义党发现了一个经验上的难题，它表明，即使是受冲突严重影响的民族群体，也可能通过国家而不是民族政党选择代表。这个谜题的关键在于，不同的冲突经历造就了不同的叛军与平民关系。法律正义党认为，在民族战争期间的“群体内背叛”（支持国家镇压叛乱而不是民族叛乱）会破坏民族-国家政治运动的合法性，从而抑制冲突后选举中的民族动员。虽然政治学家将冲突后环境中的选举与重新爆发暴力联系起来，但人们对战时身份政治如何影响这些结果知之甚少。该项目将民族政治文学与冲突文学联系起来，关注叛军与平民的关系如何影响冲突后的选举政治。PIs认为，群体内叛军领袖造成伤害的经历会影响受冲突影响群体中民族政治动员的可能性。在方法上，pi使用调查实验程序来评估在高度敏感的政治环境中“群体内背叛”因果机制的有效性。确定暴力冲突后跨种族政治动员的根源对战后重建具有重要意义。这一项目与美国推动饱受战争蹂躏的国家和平过渡的努力相一致，有助于制定更好的和平建设战略。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project asks what determines whether salient ethnic divisions from conflict continue to be the source of political mobilization in post-conflict elections. The PIs identify an empirical puzzle that suggests that even an ethnic group heavily affected by conflict may choose representation through a national rather than an ethnic party. The key to the puzzle lies in the different experiences of conflict that bred different rebel-civilian relationships. The PIs theorize that the experience of 'in-group betrayal' (siding with state counterinsurgency rather than ethnic rebels) during ethnic war can undermine the perceived legitimacy of ethno-national political movement and thereby disincentivize ethnic mobilization in post-conflict elections. While political scientists have linked elections in post-conflict environments as arenas for renewed violence, little is known about how wartime identity politics might have influenced these outcomes. This project connects ethnic politics literature with conflict literature by drawing attention to how the rebel-civilian relationship affects post-conflict electoral politics. The PIs propose that experience of harm inflicted by in-group rebel leaders affect the likelihood of ethnic political mobilization among conflict-affected groups. Methodologically, the PIs use a survey experiment procedure to assess the validity of the causal mechanism of 'in-group betrayal' in a highly sensitive political environment. Identifying the source of cross-ethnic political mobilization after a violent conflict has important implications for post-war reconstruction. In line with the U.S. efforts for peaceful transition of war-torn states, this project contributes to making better peace-building strategies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.