Using Large Ensemble Simulations from Multiple Global Climate Models to Quantify the Internal Decadal Climate Variability

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Natural variability of climate at decadal timescale can have profound regional impact. Due to the limited length of the observational record, there is a lack of quantitative understanding of decadal climate variability. The overall goal of this proposal is to take advantage of the large ensemble simulations from several climate modeling groups to improve the understanding of internal climate variability. The findings of this project will provide insights into the characteristic, regional influence, and future evolution of decadal variability. The research outcome will provide valuable quantitative climate information broadly useful to other research fields as well a variety of disciplines such as ecological response and urban planning. The integrated knowledge will better prepare the society for the climatic trend at regional scale. Through this project, two graduate students will be trained in the fields of climate modeling and statistical analysis.The researchers will investigate how to separate internally decadal variability from the externally forced centennial trend using a large ensemble approach. They will develop decadal variability indices with a suite of hydroclimate related properties such as aridity, drought index and soil moisture conditions in order to quantify the regional influence. The project also aims to assess the potential impact of the centennial warming on the decadal variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.