Using Large Ensemble Simulations from Multiple Global Climate Models to Quantify the Internal Decadal Climate Variability

年代际尺度的气候自然变率可产生深远的区域影响。由于观测记录的长度有限，对年代际气候变率缺乏定量的认识。本建议的总体目标是利用几个气候模拟小组的大集合模拟来提高对内部气候变率的理解。该项目的研究结果将有助于深入了解年代际变率的特征、区域影响和未来演变。研究成果将提供有价值的定量气候信息，广泛应用于其他研究领域以及各种学科，如生态响应和城市规划。综合的知识将使社会更好地为区域尺度的气候趋势做好准备。通过该项目，两名研究生将在气候模拟和统计分析领域得到培训。研究人员将研究如何使用大集合方法将内部年代际变化与外部强迫的百年趋势分开。他们将开发具有一系列水文气候相关特性的年代际变率指数，如干旱、干旱指数和土壤湿度条件，以便量化区域影响。该项目还旨在评估百年变暖对年代际变率的潜在影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Natural variability of climate at decadal timescale can have profound regional impact. Due to the limited length of the observational record, there is a lack of quantitative understanding of decadal climate variability. The overall goal of this proposal is to take advantage of the large ensemble simulations from several climate modeling groups to improve the understanding of internal climate variability. The findings of this project will provide insights into the characteristic, regional influence, and future evolution of decadal variability. The research outcome will provide valuable quantitative climate information broadly useful to other research fields as well a variety of disciplines such as ecological response and urban planning. The integrated knowledge will better prepare the society for the climatic trend at regional scale. Through this project, two graduate students will be trained in the fields of climate modeling and statistical analysis.The researchers will investigate how to separate internally decadal variability from the externally forced centennial trend using a large ensemble approach. They will develop decadal variability indices with a suite of hydroclimate related properties such as aridity, drought index and soil moisture conditions in order to quantify the regional influence. The project also aims to assess the potential impact of the centennial warming on the decadal variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.