Using Large Ensemble Simulations from Multiple Global Climate Models to Quantify the Internal Decadal Climate Variability

使用多个全球气候模型的大型集合模拟来量化内部十年气候变化

• 批准号: 1841308
• 负责人: Yangyang Xu
• 金额: $ 52.01万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-06-01 至 2023-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1841308&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Using; Large; Ensemble; Simulations; Multiple

Natural variability of climate at decadal timescale can have profound regional impact. Due to the limited length of the observational record, there is a lack of quantitative understanding of decadal climate variability. The overall goal of this proposal is to take advantage of the large ensemble simulations from several climate modeling groups to improve the understanding of internal climate variability. The findings of this project will provide insights into the characteristic, regional influence, and future evolution of decadal variability. The research outcome will provide valuable quantitative climate information broadly useful to other research fields as well a variety of disciplines such as ecological response and urban planning. The integrated knowledge will better prepare the society for the climatic trend at regional scale. Through this project, two graduate students will be trained in the fields of climate modeling and statistical analysis.The researchers will investigate how to separate internally decadal variability from the externally forced centennial trend using a large ensemble approach. They will develop decadal variability indices with a suite of hydroclimate related properties such as aridity, drought index and soil moisture conditions in order to quantify the regional influence. The project also aims to assess the potential impact of the centennial warming on the decadal variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

十年时间尺度的气候自然变化可以产生深远的区域影响。由于观测记录的长度有限，人们对年代际气候变化缺乏定量的认识。该提案的总体目标是利用多个气候建模小组的大型集合模拟来提高对内部气候变化的理解。该项目的研究结果将有助于深入了解年代际变化的特征、区域影响和未来演变。研究成果将为其他研究领域以及生态响应和城市规划等各种学科提供广泛有用的有价值的定量气候信息。综合知识将使社会更好地为区域范围内的气候趋势做好准备。通过这个项目，两名研究生将接受气候建模和统计分析领域的培训。研究人员将研究如何使用大型集合方法将内部十年变率与外部强制百年趋势分开。他们将开发具有一系列水文气候相关特性（例如干旱度、干旱指数和土壤湿度条件）的十年变率指数，以量化区域影响。该项目还旨在评估百年变暖对年代际变化的潜在影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Reassessing the relative role of anthropogenic aerosols and natural decadal variability in driving the mid-twentieth century global “cooling”: a focus on the latitudinal gradient of tropospheric temperature

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06235-y
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: C. Diao;Yangyang Xu

The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas

忽略气候变化和变异性对 ERCOT 德克萨斯州电力需求预测的影响

• DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0140.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: and Society
• 作者: Lee, Jangho;Dessler, Andrew E.
• 通讯作者: Dessler, Andrew E.

Ameliorating cold stress in a hot climate: Effect of Winter Storm Uri on residents of subsidized housing neighborhoods

• DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.108646
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Building and Environment
• 影响因子: 7.4
• 作者: Xiaoyu Li;Yue Zhang;Dongying Li;Yangyang Xu;Robert D. Brown

Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

考虑模式效应后更大的持续变暖

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Chen Zhou;Mark D. Zelinka;Andrew E. Dessler;Minghuai Wang
• 通讯作者: Minghuai Wang

The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO₂-warmed world

在 CO₂ 变暖的世界中，热浪、极端温度和相关人口风险中的强制变化和非受迫变化的影响

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Lee, Jangho;Mast, Jeffrey C.;Dessler, Andrew E.
• 通讯作者: Dessler, Andrew E.