Numeric self-efficacy, objective numeracy, and overconfidence

数字经常用于决策（例如，选择抵押贷款和健康保险计划）。先前的研究表明，更客观地计算的人（他们更擅长解决数字问题）在涉及数字时也能做出更好的逻辑决策。对自己的数字能力有信心似乎也能让人们更坚持数字，但这方面的研究很少。在目前的项目中，研究小组将开发一种改进的客观计算能力测量方法，并测试关于数字自信与智能（例如，客观计算能力，非数字智能）和过度自信的不同假设。此外，该团队还调查了数字自信如何以及何时有助于和损害人们做出正确决策的能力。预期这些研究将促进科学在判断和决策方面的进步，从而提高对科学的理解，从而采取更好的干预措施，改善有关健康和财富的决策。调查人员将利用已开发的知识与面向公众的团体合作，研究如何设计信息以促进更好的决策。这些新知识将被整合到俄勒冈大学的科学传播研究中心。调查结果将在学术和政策报告和出版物中传播，并通过对话、广播和报纸向公众传播。本研究建立在最近的理论和发现的基础上，以了解客观计算能力和数字自我效能（即对自己能力的信心）的可分离心理机制。在9个实验中，研究小组开发了一种更有用的客观计算能力测量方法，并测试了关于数字自我效能与客观计算能力、非数字智力和认知反射的不同之处，以及它如何有助于或损害决策表现的假设。特别是，主要研究者试图理解数字自我效能和客观计算能力在决策中何时以及为什么相互作用，而不是作为主要影响。研究将通过自我效能支持来研究决策绩效如何提高或下降，研究团队将测试数字自我效能和过度自信之间的关系，并开发和测试改进校准的方法。该小组将研究决策的双过程理论的含义。预计拟议的研究将大大增加对涉及数字信息的决策及其对健康的影响的心理机制的理解。这种理解将导致新的干预措施，以改善决策。政策制定者和其他人通常认为，如果提供适当的数字，人们就会理解并适当地使用它们。然而，如果数字没有被恰当地呈现，它们可能会被误解，并且/或者它们可能会导致决策者脱离参与。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Numbers are often used in decisions (e.g., choosing mortgages and health insurance plans). Previous research has shown that more objectively numerate people (they’re better at solving numeric problems) also make logically better decisions when numbers are involved. Having confidence in one’s numeric abilities also appears to support people persisting more with numbers, but little research exists on this point. In the present project, the research team will develop an improved objective numeracy measure and test hypotheses about how numeric confidence differs from intelligence (e.g., objective numeracy, nonnumeric intelligence) and overconfidence. Further, the team investigates how and when numeric confidence helps versus hurts people’s abilities to make good decisions. The studies are expected to promote the progress of science in judgment and decision making such that this improved scientific understanding will lead to better interventions to improve decision making about health and wealth. The investigators will use developed knowledge to work with public-facing groups about how to design messages to facilitate better decision making. This new knowledge will be integrated into the University of Oregon’s Center for Science Communication Research. Findings will be disseminated in academic and policy presentations and publications and to the public through The Conversation, radio, and newspapers. The present research builds on recent theory and findings to understand the separable psychological mechanisms of objective numeracy and numeric self-efficacy (i.e., confidence in one’s abilities). In nine experiments, the research team develop a more useable objective numeracy measure and test hypotheses about how numeric self-efficacy differs from objective numeracy, nonnumeric intelligence, and cognitive reflection and how it can help or hurt decision performance. In particular, the principal investigators seek to understand when and why numeric self-efficacy and objective numeracy interact in decision making vs act as main effects. The research will examine how decision performance can improve or decline through self-efficacy support, and the research team will test how numeric self-efficacy and overconfidence relate and develop and test ways to improve calibration. The team will examine implications for dual-process theories of decision making. It is expected that the proposed research will add substantially to understanding the psychological mechanisms underlying decisions involving numeric information and their impact on wellbeing. This understanding will lead to novel interventions to improve decision making. Policy makers and others generally assume that, if provided appropriate numbers, people will understand and use them appropriately. However, numbers can be misunderstood if they are not presented appropriately, and/or they may cause decision makers to disengage.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.