The Psychology of Number Processing in Decision Making

决策中的数字处理心理学

• 批准号: 1047757
• 负责人: Ellen Peters
• 金额: $ 17.23万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-30 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1047757&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Psychology; Number; Processing; Decision; Making

Numerical information is ubiquitous in decisions, both big and small (how many minutes to drive to the grocery, mortgages, credit-card debt, medical treatments, environmental risks). High quality data (e.g., complex data concerning natural hazards, health treatments, and financial options) are increasingly available to experts and the public. To a degree never before possible, individuals are in a position to understand risks, and, in the process, increase control over their lives. Policy makers and others generally assume that, if provided appropriate numbers, people will understand and use them, but having access to information is only the first step to making good decisions. Individuals may lack the skills, knowledge, or motivation to access credible sources, process information, and make informed choices. As a result, the same data may not be understood or used in the same way by all users. Previous research, in fact, has shown that individuals low and high in numeracy (abilities with mathematical and probabilistic concepts) rely on different sources of information in decision making, and that those lower in numeracy comprehend less and may make poorer decisions when numbers are involved. Numbers are used (and not used) in some surprising ways in decision making. Using behavioral methods (including reaction time, judgment, and choice) modified from previous literatures, this project involves conduct of experiments to test the relations between numeracy and intuitive representations of numbers and to test their separable influences in a variety of decision contexts. This research may add substantially to our understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying decisions that involve numeric information. It will also add to the growing body of knowledge concerning how intuitive and deliberative ways of thinking interact and influence how numeric information is processed in decision making.

数字信息在大大小小的决策中无处不在（开车去杂货店需要多少分钟、抵押贷款、信用卡债务、医疗、环境风险）。高质量数据（例如，关于自然灾害、健康治疗和财务选择的复杂数据）越来越多地提供给专家和公众。在前所未有的程度上，个人能够理解风险，并在此过程中加强对自己生活的控制。决策者和其他人通常认为，如果提供适当的数字，人们会理解和使用它们，但获得信息只是做出正确决策的第一步。 个人可能缺乏获取可靠来源、处理信息和做出知情选择的技能、知识或动机。因此，所有用户可能无法以相同的方式理解或使用相同的数据。事实上，先前的研究已经表明，计算能力低和高的人（具有数学和概率概念的能力）在决策时依赖于不同的信息来源，而那些计算能力较低的人理解较少，当涉及数字时可能会做出更糟糕的决策。在决策过程中，数字以一些令人惊讶的方式被使用（和不被使用）。使用行为的方法（包括反应时间，判断，和选择）修改从以前的文献中，该项目涉及进行实验，以测试之间的关系，算术和直观的数字表示，并测试其可分离的影响，在各种决策的情况下。这项研究可能会大大增加我们对涉及数字信息的决策背后的心理机制的理解。它还将增加关于直觉和深思熟虑的思维方式如何相互作用并影响数字信息如何在决策过程中处理的知识。