The Psychology of Number Processing in Decision Making

数字信息无处不在，无论是大的还是小的决策(开车去杂货店多少分钟，抵押贷款，信用卡债务，医疗，环境风险)。越来越多的专家和公众可以获得高质量的数据(例如，关于自然灾害、健康治疗和财务选择的复杂数据)。在前所未有的程度上，个人能够理解风险，并在这个过程中加强对自己生活的控制。政策制定者和其他人通常认为，如果提供适当的数字，人们将理解和使用这些数字，但获得信息只是做出正确决策的第一步。个人可能缺乏获取可信来源、处理信息和做出明智选择的技能、知识或动机。因此，所有用户可能不会以相同的方式理解或使用相同的数据。事实上，之前的研究已经表明，计算能力低和高的人(具有数学和概率概念的能力)在决策时依赖不同的信息来源，而那些计算能力低的人理解得更少，当涉及数字时，他们可能会做出更糟糕的决定。在决策过程中，数字以一些令人惊讶的方式被使用(和不使用)。本研究采用修改自前人文献的行为方法(包括反应时、判断和选择)，进行实验，以测试数字的计算能力和对数字的直观表征之间的关系，并测试它们在不同决策情境中的分离影响。这项研究可能会大大增加我们对涉及数字信息的决策背后的心理机制的理解。它还将增加越来越多的关于直觉和深思熟虑的思维方式如何相互作用和影响决策过程中处理数字信息的知识。

Numerical information is ubiquitous in decisions, both big and small (how many minutes to drive to the grocery, mortgages, credit-card debt, medical treatments, environmental risks). High quality data (e.g., complex data concerning natural hazards, health treatments, and financial options) are increasingly available to experts and the public. To a degree never before possible, individuals are in a position to understand risks, and, in the process, increase control over their lives. Policy makers and others generally assume that, if provided appropriate numbers, people will understand and use them, but having access to information is only the first step to making good decisions. Individuals may lack the skills, knowledge, or motivation to access credible sources, process information, and make informed choices. As a result, the same data may not be understood or used in the same way by all users. Previous research, in fact, has shown that individuals low and high in numeracy (abilities with mathematical and probabilistic concepts) rely on different sources of information in decision making, and that those lower in numeracy comprehend less and may make poorer decisions when numbers are involved. Numbers are used (and not used) in some surprising ways in decision making. Using behavioral methods (including reaction time, judgment, and choice) modified from previous literatures, this project involves conduct of experiments to test the relations between numeracy and intuitive representations of numbers and to test their separable influences in a variety of decision contexts. This research may add substantially to our understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying decisions that involve numeric information. It will also add to the growing body of knowledge concerning how intuitive and deliberative ways of thinking interact and influence how numeric information is processed in decision making.