Manipulating numeracy: Causal effects on judgments and decisions

最近关于计算能力的研究表明，个体在处理数字的能力上存在很大差异，事实上，许多人都是“数学盲”。在我们这个越来越技术化的世界里，数学盲（缺乏理解和使用基本概率和数学概念的能力）可能是在金融、医疗和其他领域做出正确决策的关键劣势。在这个项目中，首席研究员将测试计算能力（通过数学测试的分数来衡量，并在统计学课程中进行操纵）是否对实验室测试的决策能力以及个人做出的判断和决策的质量有因果影响。计算能力也将通过先前展示的课堂自我肯定操纵来操纵，以改善课堂上对一些学生发现的威胁话题的学习。她将进行两个系列的研究。研究系列1将侧重于计算能力在决策能力中的因果作用，以及（纵向）风险和决策结果。研究系列2将考察其在附加决策能力、显性和隐性数学态度以及重要的过程机制（例如，对数字的注意）中的因果作用。就更广泛的影响而言，这项研究将检验提高数字能力是否会随后改善人们在健康、金融和其他领域的决策方式。数字信息通常是做出正确决策所必需的（例如，抵押贷款、健康保险、信用卡债务、医疗方案）。政策制定者和其他人通常认为，如果你提供适当的数字，人们就会理解并使用它们。然而，先前的研究表明，计算能力较低和较高的人在做决定时依赖于不同的信息来源，而计算能力较低的人在涉及数字时理解得更少，做出的决定可能更差。例如，较低的计算能力与遵循复杂药物治疗方案的能力较差以及退休储蓄不足有关。然而，算术研究在本质上很大程度上是相关的，相对于其他第三变量（例如，一般智力），其因果影响尚未得到很好的理解。拟议的研究将大大增加我们对决策背后的心理机制及其对生活质量和福祉的影响的理解。简而言之，我们建议测试数学训练是否可能是不断给予的教育礼物。更广泛的影响还包括研究生和本科生的培训和职业发展。最后，该项目有望为改善本科生统计学教学提供参考

Recent research in numeracy suggests that individuals differ substantially in their abilities to process numbers and that, in fact, many people are "innumerate". In our increasingly technical world, innumeracy (a lack of ability to understand and use basic probability and mathematical concepts) may be a critical disadvantage to making good decisions in financial, medical, and other domains.In this project, the Principal Investigator will test whether numeracy (as measured through scores on a math test and manipulated in a statistics course) has a causal influence on decision-making abilities tested in the lab and on the quality of judgments and decisions that individuals make. Numeracy will also be manipulated through an in-class self-affirmation manipulation shown previously to improve classroom learning of topics found threatening by some students. She will conduct two series of studies. Study Series 1 will focus on numeracy's causal role in decision-making abilities and (longitudinally) on risk and decision outcomes. Study Series 2 will examine its causal role in additional decision-making abilities, explicit and implicit math attitudes, and important process mechanisms (for example, attention to numbers).In terms of broader impacts, this research will examine whether improving number ability will subsequently improve how people make decisions in health, financial, and other domains. Numerical information is often necessary to making good decisions (e.g., mortgages, health insurance, credit card debt, medical treatment options). Policy makers and others generally assume that if you provide the appropriate numbers, people will understand and use them. Previous research, however, has shown that individuals lower and higher in numeracy rely on different sources of information in decisions, and that those lower in numeracy comprehend less and may make poorer decisions when numbers are involved. For example, lower numeracy has been associated with less ability to follow complex medication regimens and less adequate retirement savings. Numeracy research, however, has been largely correlational in nature and its causal influence is not well understood relative to other third variables (for example, general intelligence). The proposed research should add substantially to our understanding of psychological mechanisms underlying decisions and their impact on quality of life and wellbeing. In short, we propose to test whether numeracy training may be the educational gift that keeps on giving. Broader impacts also include training and career development of graduate and undergraduate students. Finally, the project is expected to inform efforts to improve the teaching of statistics to undergraduates