Numeracy and Affect in Judgment and Decision Making

判断和决策中的计算能力和影响力

• 批准号: 0517770
• 负责人: Ellen Peters
• 金额: $ 34.39万
• 依托单位: Decision Science Research Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-08-15 至 2008-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0517770&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Numeracy; Affect; Judgment; Decision; Making

Recent research in numeracy suggests that individuals differ substantially in their abilities to process numbers and that, in fact, many people are "innumerate." In our increasingly technical world, innumeracy (a lack of ability to understand and use basic probability and mathematical concepts) may be a critical disadvantage to making good decisions in financial, medical, and other domains.The proposed research examines the roles of numeracy and affect in decision making. We examine the extent to which numerical ability helps decisions in some situations and hurts decisions in others. We also examine whether numeracy impacts affective feelings, and we attempt to manipulate affect as well as to enhance and disrupt calculation ability in order to test hypotheses. This research will add to the growing body of knowledge concerning how affective and deliberative ways of thinking may influence important aspects of decision making such as the effects of describing features of a decision in different ways (framing). In addition, proposals for improving people's decision-making abilities are based primarily on research results based on the population as a whole. It may be, however, that individuals will differ in the type of assistance they need. Those low in numerical ability may need different decision aids than those high in numerical ability. In some decisions that involve very complex numbers, we may all need assistance. We are increasingly being asked to make our own decisions about vital life issues. No longer are health and financial decisions left entirely to specialists such as the family doctor. Instead, all decision makers are faced with more choices and more information than in previous generations. Thus, research-based advice is essential to help decision makers who differ in their preferences and abilities for processing information and who face decisions that differ in numerical complexity.

最近关于计算能力的研究表明，个体在处理数字的能力上存在很大差异，事实上，许多人都是“数学盲”。在我们这个越来越技术化的世界里，数学盲（缺乏理解和使用基本概率和数学概念的能力）可能是在金融、医疗和其他领域做出正确决策的关键劣势。提出的研究探讨了计算能力和影响在决策中的作用。我们考察了数字能力在某些情况下有助于决策而在其他情况下不利于决策的程度。我们还研究了计算能力是否会影响情感感受，我们试图操纵情感以及增强和破坏计算能力，以检验假设。这项研究将增加关于情感和深思熟虑的思维方式如何影响决策的重要方面的知识体系，例如以不同方式描述决策特征的效果（框架）。此外，提高人们决策能力的建议主要基于基于整体人口的研究结果。然而，可能每个人需要的援助类型有所不同。数字能力低的人需要的决策辅助可能与数字能力高的人不同。在一些涉及非常复杂数字的决策中，我们可能都需要帮助。我们越来越多地被要求在重要的生活问题上自己做决定。健康和财务决策不再完全由家庭医生等专家来决定。相反，所有的决策者都面临着比前几代人更多的选择和更多的信息。因此，基于研究的建议对于那些在处理信息的偏好和能力上存在差异以及在数字复杂性上面临不同决策的决策者来说是必不可少的。