Opening and reestablishment of Kilauea's lower east rift zone magma plumbing system during the 2018 eruption

2018 年喷发期间基拉韦厄东部裂谷带岩浆管道系统的开放和重建

基本信息

批准号：
2114382
负责人：
Helge Gonnermann
金额：
$ 33.33万
依托单位：
William Marsh Rice University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2114382&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Opening reestablishment Kilauea lower east

项目摘要

The project is focused on computer modeling of magma flow in the subsurface beneath Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. During Kilauea's 4-months long 2018 eruption magma flowed beneath the ground surface over a distance of approximately 15 miles from Kilauea's summit before erupting onto the surface. Once erupted, the magma formed lava flows that covered approximately 875 acres of land, destroyed approximately 700 houses, and resulted in close to 1 billion dollars of damage. Volcanoes typically encompass areas of thousands of square miles, but the actual location where magma breaches the surface is difficult to predict and contingent upon the flow of magma at thousands of feet beneath the surface. Subsurface magma migration can be detected by satellite and geophysical observations, but potential forecasting of volcanic activity and assessment of eruption hazards are contingent upon predictive computer modeling of subsurface magma flow and deformation of the surrounding rock, in particular the magma's ability to break rock in order to advance toward the surface. This project will leverage the exceptionally diverse and extensive set of observational data from the 2018 eruption of Kilauea in a case study with the goal of advancing the state of the art in computer modeling and forecasting prior to and during an eruption. The project will benefit national health, prosperity and welfare by advancing societal resilience against natural disasters. A substantial component of the project involves the education of high-school teachers within the Houston Independent School District, the largest school district in Texas and serving a highly diverse urban student population with approximately 80% economically disadvantaged students. Beyond it importance in scientific and industrial research, computational modeling has become a valuable skill as part of the modern manufacturing process and the goal is to promote the teaching of computational modeling at the high-school level.The objective of the proposed project is to advance understanding about the interaction between magmatic and tectonic components of volcanic systems. It is focused on physics-based modeling of magma transport during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. It has been suggested that abrupt seaward movement of Kilauea’s south flank, as during the 2018 M6.9 earthquake, can be facilitated by intrusive magma migration. Buildup of magma pressure at Kilauea was detected for several years prior to the 2018 eruption, eventually causing magma to intrude for 15 miles down Kilauea’s east rift zone before erupting. A key objective of the project is to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of magma pressure within Kilauea’s east rift zone in order to provide constraints on stress conditions that may have led to the abrupt displacement of Kilauea’s south flank during the M6.9 earthquake. The proposed approach includes numerical simulation of magma transport prior to and during the 2018 eruption, integrated with elastic deformation modeling of the magmatic-tectonic system, using a wide range of observations (GPS, InSAR, tilt, gravity, earthquakes, eruption rate, magma chemistry) as constraints. Advancement of forecasting capabilities in volcanic systems is contingent upon physics-based models to reliably predict observational data. The intellectual merit of the proposed project lies in the advancement of physics-based computer modeling through leveraging one of the best-monitored volcanic eruptions of all time.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目的重点是夏威夷基拉韦阿火山下的地下岩浆流的计算机建模。在基拉韦阿（Kilauea）长达4个月的2018年爆发期间，岩浆在地面以下流动，距离基拉韦阿（Kilauea）的山顶约15英里，然后爆发到表面上。爆发后，岩浆形成了熔岩流，覆盖了约875英亩的土地，摧毁了约700栋房屋，并造成了近10亿美元的损失。火山通常包含数千平方英里的区域，但是岩浆呼吸表面的实际位置很难预测，并包括岩浆在地面以下数千英尺处的流动。可以通过卫星和地球物理观测来检测地下岩浆迁移，但是对火山活动的潜在预测和喷发危险的评估取决于地下岩浆流量的预测计算机建模和周围岩石的变形，特别是岩浆能够朝向表面旋转岩石的能力。该项目将利用2018年Kilauea爆发的异常多样化和广泛的观测数据，目的是在喷发之前和期间提高计算机建模和预测。该项目将通过推进对自然灾害的社会韧性来使国家健康，繁荣和福利受益。该项目的重要组成部分涉及休斯顿独立学区的高中教师教育，这是德克萨斯州最大的学区，并为高度多样化的城市学生提供教育，大约有80％的经济不利的学生。除了在科学和工业研究中的重要性之外，计算建模已成为现代制造过程的一部分的宝贵技能，目标是促进在高中层面上的计算建模教学。拟议项目的目的是促进对磁性系统的岩浆和构造组件之间的相互作用的了解。它的重点是在2018年夏威夷基拉韦阿火山喷发期间基于物理的岩浆运输建模。有人提出，基拉韦阿南侧的突然向海运动，就像2018年M6.9地震一样，可以通过侵入性的岩浆迁移来制备。在2018年爆发之前，发现了基拉韦阿的岩浆压力的堆积，最终导致岩浆在爆发之前闯入了基拉韦阿的东裂谷区15英里。该项目的一个关键目的是量化基拉韦阿东裂谷区域内岩浆压力的空间演变，以便在M6.9地震期间对基尔拉韦阿南侧的突然位移的压力条件提供限制。所提出的方法包括在2018年喷发之前和期间对岩浆传输的数值模拟，并使用广泛的观测值（GPS，Insar，倾斜，重力，地震，地震，喷发率，岩浆化学）集成了岩浆岩浆构造系统的弹性变形模型。火山系统中预测能力的进步取决于基于物理的模型，以可靠地预测观察数据。拟议项目的智力优点在于通过利用有史以来最佳监测的火山喷发之一来提高基于物理的计算机建模。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准来评估而被认为是通过评估来支持的。