Alternatives for the future. On the role of real possibilities and historical conditionals for our hypothetical and counterfactual thinking and acting

该分项目通过侧重于与时间有关的可能性（未来的备选方案）的相关性，对条件句（如果-那么-陈述）提供了新的看法。有三个主要目标。首先，这个项目将根据不同的可能性概念提供条件句的分类，从抽象的、逻辑的到具体的、依赖时间的真实的可能性。第二，我们将为基于真实的可能性的条件句开发适当的形式语义，我们称之为历史条件句（例如，如果我昨天加速的话，我就赶上火车了。语义学必须解释为什么有些历史条件句为真，而另一些为假。语义学将通过树状分支结构使用真实的可能性的表示，该树状分支结构提供可能性的时间动态的适当表示。在语义学中，我们还将采用最近开发的方法，通过所谓的转换为未来建模的替代方案，从而避免常见的基于可能世界的方法的问题。第三，新的语义学将被用作详细研究历史条件句的语用学的基础，使我们能够更深入地理解历史条件句在我们的思维和行动中的作用。该项目将申请人以前对真实的可能性概念的大量研究与研究小组的主要目标联系起来：对于历史条件这一重要类别，将深入研究条件性作为一种工具的作用。问题是，如果X？总是指X是这种情况的可能性。对于历史条件句来说，更确切地说，这是一种可能性，在这种可能性中，X将是这种情况，或者本来会是这种情况。这种可能性与时间和现实的联系不仅存在于单个历史条件的层次上，而且存在于话语层次上，直到整个替代历史。该项目将有助于提高我们对条件句在所有这些层面上的动态的理解。

The sub-project provides a fresh look on conditionals (if-then-statements) by focusing on the relevance of time-dependent possibilities (alternatives for the future). Three main aims are pursued. First, the project will provide a taxonomy of conditionals based on different notions of possibility, ranging from abstract, logical to concrete, time-dependent real possibilities. Second, we will develop an appropriate formal semantics for conditionals based on real possibilities, which we call historical conditionals (e.g., ¿If I had sped up yesterday, I would have caught the train.¿). That semantics has to explain why some historical conditionals are true and others, false. The semantics will use a representation of real possibilities via tree-like branching structures that provide an adequate representation of the temporal dynamics of possibilities. In the semantics we will also employ a recently developed approach to modeling alternatives for the future via so-called transitions, thereby avoiding problems of the common possible-worlds-based approach. Third, the new semantics will be used as a basis for a detailed investigation into the pragmatics of historical conditionals, enabling a deeper understanding of the role of historical conditionals in our thinking and acting.The project connects the applicant¿s previous substantial research on the notion of real possibility with the Forschergruppe¿s main aims: For the important class of historical conditionals, the role of conditionality as a tool will be investigated in depth. The question ¿What if X?¿ always refers to a possibility in which X is the case. For historical conditionals, this is, more precisely, a possibility in which X will be the case, or would have been the case. This connection of possibilities with time and reality is present not just at the level of single historical conditionals, but also at the discourse level up to whole alternative histories. The project will help to improve our understanding of the dynamics of conditionals at all these levels.