Alternatives for the future. On the role of real possibilities and historical conditionals for our hypothetical and counterfactual thinking and acting

子项目通过关注与时间相关的可能性（未来的替代方案）的相关性，对条件句（if-then语句）提供了新的看法。它追求三个主要目标。首先，该项目将提供一个基于不同可能性概念的条件分类，范围从抽象的、逻辑的到具体的、依赖于时间的真实可能性。其次，我们将基于真实可能性为条件句开发一种适当的形式语义，我们称之为历史条件句（例如，“如果我昨天加速了，我就会赶上火车。”）。语义必须解释为什么一些历史条件为真而另一些为假。语义将通过树形分支结构使用真实可能性的表示，这种结构提供了可能性的时间动态的充分表示。在语义方面，我们还将采用一种最近开发的方法，通过所谓的转换为未来的备选方案建模，从而避免常见的基于可能世界的方法的问题。第三，新的语义将作为详细研究历史条件语用学的基础，使我们能够更深入地了解历史条件语在我们的思维和行动中的作用。该项目将申请人之前对真实可能性概念的大量研究与Forschergruppe的主要目标联系起来：对于重要的历史条件类，条件性作为工具的作用将被深入研究。问题是“如果X怎么办？”¿总是指X是这种情况的可能性。对于历史条件，更准确地说，这是一种可能性，在这种情况下，X将会是，或者本来会是。这种与时间和现实的可能性的联系不仅存在于单一历史条件的层面，而且存在于整个替代历史的话语层面。该项目将有助于提高我们对所有这些层次上条件的动态的理解。

The sub-project provides a fresh look on conditionals (if-then-statements) by focusing on the relevance of time-dependent possibilities (alternatives for the future). Three main aims are pursued. First, the project will provide a taxonomy of conditionals based on different notions of possibility, ranging from abstract, logical to concrete, time-dependent real possibilities. Second, we will develop an appropriate formal semantics for conditionals based on real possibilities, which we call historical conditionals (e.g., ¿If I had sped up yesterday, I would have caught the train.¿). That semantics has to explain why some historical conditionals are true and others, false. The semantics will use a representation of real possibilities via tree-like branching structures that provide an adequate representation of the temporal dynamics of possibilities. In the semantics we will also employ a recently developed approach to modeling alternatives for the future via so-called transitions, thereby avoiding problems of the common possible-worlds-based approach. Third, the new semantics will be used as a basis for a detailed investigation into the pragmatics of historical conditionals, enabling a deeper understanding of the role of historical conditionals in our thinking and acting.The project connects the applicant¿s previous substantial research on the notion of real possibility with the Forschergruppe¿s main aims: For the important class of historical conditionals, the role of conditionality as a tool will be investigated in depth. The question ¿What if X?¿ always refers to a possibility in which X is the case. For historical conditionals, this is, more precisely, a possibility in which X will be the case, or would have been the case. This connection of possibilities with time and reality is present not just at the level of single historical conditionals, but also at the discourse level up to whole alternative histories. The project will help to improve our understanding of the dynamics of conditionals at all these levels.