Alternatives for the future. On the role of real possibilities and historical conditionals for our hypothetical and counterfactual thinking and acting

子项目通过关注依赖时间的可能性(未来的替代方案)的相关性，提供了对条件句(IF-THEN-语句)的新看法。我们追求三个主要目标。首先，该项目将提供基于不同可能性概念的条件句分类，从抽象的、逻辑的到具体的、依赖时间的真实可能性。其次，我们将基于真实的可能性为条件句开发适当的形式语义，我们称之为历史条件句(例如，如果我昨天加快速度，我就会赶上火车。)这种语义学必须解释为什么一些历史条件句是真的，而另一些是假的。语义学将通过树形分支结构使用真实可能性的表示，该树形分支结构提供对可能性的时间动态的适当表示。在语义学中，我们还将使用最近开发的方法来通过所谓的转换为未来的替代方案建模，从而避免常见的基于可能世界的方法的问题。第三，新的语义学将作为详细考察历史条件句语用的基础，使我们能够更深入地理解历史条件句在我们的思维和行为中的作用。本项目将申请者S之前对真实可能性概念的大量研究与S的主要目的联系起来：对于历史条件句这一重要类别，将深入考察条件句的工具作用。问题“如果X？”总是指的是X就是这种情况的一种可能性。对于历史条件句，更准确地说，这是一种可能性，其中X将是这样的，或者本来是这样的。这种可能性与时间和现实的联系不仅出现在单一的历史条件句层面上，而且还出现在话语层面上，直到整个另类历史。该项目将有助于提高我们对条件句在所有这些层面上的动态的理解。

The sub-project provides a fresh look on conditionals (if-then-statements) by focusing on the relevance of time-dependent possibilities (alternatives for the future). Three main aims are pursued. First, the project will provide a taxonomy of conditionals based on different notions of possibility, ranging from abstract, logical to concrete, time-dependent real possibilities. Second, we will develop an appropriate formal semantics for conditionals based on real possibilities, which we call historical conditionals (e.g., ¿If I had sped up yesterday, I would have caught the train.¿). That semantics has to explain why some historical conditionals are true and others, false. The semantics will use a representation of real possibilities via tree-like branching structures that provide an adequate representation of the temporal dynamics of possibilities. In the semantics we will also employ a recently developed approach to modeling alternatives for the future via so-called transitions, thereby avoiding problems of the common possible-worlds-based approach. Third, the new semantics will be used as a basis for a detailed investigation into the pragmatics of historical conditionals, enabling a deeper understanding of the role of historical conditionals in our thinking and acting.The project connects the applicant¿s previous substantial research on the notion of real possibility with the Forschergruppe¿s main aims: For the important class of historical conditionals, the role of conditionality as a tool will be investigated in depth. The question ¿What if X?¿ always refers to a possibility in which X is the case. For historical conditionals, this is, more precisely, a possibility in which X will be the case, or would have been the case. This connection of possibilities with time and reality is present not just at the level of single historical conditionals, but also at the discourse level up to whole alternative histories. The project will help to improve our understanding of the dynamics of conditionals at all these levels.