The philosophy of the analysis of complex, adaptive, and bifurcating economic systems

复杂、适应性和分歧经济系统的分析哲学

• 批准号: 396771801
• 负责人: Dr. Tobias Henschen
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung (MPIFG)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/396771801?language=en
• 关键词: philosophy; analysis; complex; adaptive; bifurcating

The research project aims to provide the philosophical foundations for the analysis of complex, adaptive, and bifurcating economic systems (CABESs). CABES analysis differs from conventional economics (CE) in that it uses systems of nonlinear equations without analytical solutions to study (dynamical) economic systems with heterogenous populations of directly interacting agents who modify their behavior in response to changes in systemic properties that result from changes in the environment. While CE is an old and venerable discipline, CABES analysis is still quite young; it probably has not emerged before the 1980s when the computer simulation techniques were created that can be used to study the dynamics of CABESs. And while the philosophy of CE has been a popular and industrious research area for at least 30 years, the philosophy of CABES analysis is almost nonexistent.But a philosophical reflection of the methods and basic concepts of CABES analysis becomes increasingly important, as an increasing number of theorists call for a paradigm shift. Especially since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, many of them claim that CABES analysis outperforms CE in terms of explanation, prediction, and policy justification, and that CABES analysis therefore deserves a stronger presence in economic curricula and the faculties of economics departments. But an adequate evaluation of that claim presupposes satisfying answers to questions such as the following: How do the generalizations used in CABES analysis explain? Can they be used for predictive purposes? Do they encode the causal claims required to justify policy decisions? What type of causality operates in CABESs? While the philosophy of CE has arrived at some convincing answers to corresponding questions, satisfying answers in the philosophy of CABES analysis are still missing. And while the philosophy of CE has been able to proceed to (not always flattering) evaluations of CE methods, methodological evaluations of CABES analysis do not get off the ground.The research project therefore aims to prepare the ground for these evaluations by investigating the metaphysics of CABES analysis. It will then carry out these evaluations by scrutinizing some of the most important computational models that CABES analysts use to explain or predict specific states of CABESs, or to justify economic policy decisions. The research project further aims to analyze the ethics of CABES analysis and CABES-analysis-based policy: Is CABES analysis likely to be influenced by non-epistemic values? What is the nature of CABES-analysis-based policy? What should be the goals of CABES-analysis-based policy? Does it rely on secure knowledge? The research project will finally consider whether we should be monists or pluralists with respect to CE and CABES analysis.

该研究项目旨在为复杂，适应性和分叉经济系统（CABESS）的分析提供哲学基础。CABES分析与传统经济学（CE）的不同之处在于，它使用没有解析解的非线性方程系统来研究（动态）经济系统，这些经济系统具有直接相互作用的代理人的异质群体，这些代理人根据环境变化引起的系统属性变化来修改其行为。虽然CE是一个古老而受人尊敬的学科，CABES分析仍然很年轻;它可能在20世纪80年代之前还没有出现，当时计算机模拟技术被创建，可用于研究CABES的动态。虽然CE的哲学已经成为一个流行和勤奋的研究领域至少30年，CABES分析的哲学几乎是不存在的，但CABES分析的方法和基本概念的哲学反思变得越来越重要，越来越多的理论家呼吁范式转换。特别是自2008-2009年金融危机以来，他们中的许多人声称，CABES分析在解释，预测和政策论证方面优于CE，因此，CABES分析值得在经济学课程和经济学系的教师中更强有力地存在。但是，对这一主张的充分评价以满意地回答以下问题为前提：CABES分析中使用的概括如何解释？它们可以用于预测目的吗？它们是否编码了证明政策决定合理性所需的因果主张？什么类型的因果关系在CABE中起作用？虽然CE的哲学已经对相应的问题得出了一些令人信服的答案，但CABES分析的哲学仍然缺乏令人满意的答案。虽然CE的哲学已经能够进行CE方法的评价（并不总是奉承），但CABES分析的方法论评价并没有起步。因此，本研究项目旨在通过调查CABES分析的形而上学为这些评价奠定基础。然后，它将通过仔细检查一些最重要的计算模型来进行这些评估，CABES分析师使用这些模型来解释或预测CABES的特定状态，或证明经济政策决策的合理性。该研究项目进一步旨在分析CABES分析和基于CABES分析的政策的伦理问题：CABES分析是否可能受到非认知价值观的影响？基于行预咨委会分析的政策的性质是什么？基于行预咨委会分析的政策的目标应该是什么？它依赖于安全知识吗？本研究计画最后将考虑我们在CE和CABES分析上应该是一元论者还是多元主义者。