A Dynamic Analysis of Driver's Travel Behavior to Develop Dynamic Route Guidance System

本课题的研究目的是建立动态网络仿真系统，为研究网络信息的有效性和开发动态路径诱导系统的算法提供依据。该系统可以预测交通信息对驾驶员出行行为和路网交通流的影响。研究过程如下：1.通过实验室式的实验，要求被试重复回答假设的路径选择问题，分析动态交通信息下驾驶员的路径选择行为。为了考察驾驶员的出行经验对其路径选择的影响，有必要收集驾驶员路径选择行为的时间序列观测数据。2.基于上述路径选择实验数据，估计了离散路径选择模型。该模型将驾驶员使用信息的意图作为解释变量。3.建立了由上述路径选择模型、动态交通流模型和动态信息模型组成的交通仿真系统。通过简单网络的数值实验，说明了动态交通信息的提供对驾驶员路径选择和网络交通状况的影响。通过数值试验，分析了先进出行者信息系统（AdvancedTravelerInformationSystem，APS）的效益与能够获取动态信息的驾驶员数量之间的关系。4.为了评价实时动态信息的效果，在交通仿真系统中建立了驾驶员路径转换行为模型。数值实验的一些情况下，交通状况的质量和时间提供的信息的影响。最后，本研究项目展示了对开发动态路径诱导系统算法有用的知识。

The aim of his research project is to build the dynamic network simulation system which is useful for investigating the validity of information provided and developing the algorithm of dynamic route guidance system. This system can predict the influence of traffic information provided on both drivers travel behavior and traffic flow on road network. The process of this research project is as follows.1.In this research project, we conducted laboratory-like experiments, in which participants were requested to answer repeatedly their hypothetical route choices, to analyze route choice behavior of driver with dynamic traffic information. In order to examine the effect of drivers' travel experiences on their route choices, it was necessary to collect time-series observations of driver's route choice behavior.2.Dissagregated route choice model was estimated based on the data of route choice experiments mentioned above. This model includes driver's intention of using information as a explanatory variable.3.We built the traffic simulation system which consists of three models : route choice model mentioned above, dynamic traffic flow model and dynamic information model. Some cases of numerical experiments for simple network showed the influence of providing dynamic traffic information on both driver's route choice and traffic condition on network. Especially, the aim of these numerical experiments was to analyze the relation between the benefits advanced traveler information system gave and the number of drivers who can get dynamic information.4.In order to evaluate the effect of real-time and dynamic information, the model of driver's en-route switch behavior was installed in the traffic simulation system. Some cases of numerical experiments showed the influences of both quality and timing of information provided upon traffic condition. Finally, this research project showed the knowledge which is useful for developing the algorithm of dynamic route guidance system.